{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f1126dbf-ceee-414a-bc62-40113f4e9af0", "symbol": "MNA", "name": "NYLI MERGER ARBITRAGE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.59, "architecture_energy": 34.052, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.889, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.04, "rotation_up": 53.93, "upward_expansion": 80.32, "deceleration": 49.9, "rotation_down": 17.56, "downward_expansion": 4.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.601213, 36.550522, 36.482905, 36.424632 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 36.6799, "trend_reference": 36.345113, "distance_from_trend": 0.009211, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.729044, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.087487, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.591005, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.012977, "excess_performance": -0.112648, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009211, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006121, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.087487, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009402, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09591, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000808, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.012977, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.832424, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 91844, "relative_activity": 0.655225, "balance": 1.832424, "dry_up": 0.586522, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01272, "annualized_volatility": 0.026828, "from_high_reference": -0.013716, "from_low_reference": 0.050699 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.345113, "fair_value_reference": 33.729044, "structural_low": 35.57, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.001981, "positive_rate": 0.677419, "directional_follow_through": 0.677419, "median_excess_return": -0.01818, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.017931, "worst_return": -0.020177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.011351, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.049796, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.02921, "worst_return": -0.013871, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.016223, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.06668, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.056036, "worst_return": -0.009773, 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.5889, "volume": 66783, "typical_volume": 145598.15, "trend": 36.29719, "fair_value": 33.65613, "relative_strength": -6.230705, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.030057, "energy": 32.281749, "activity_lines": [ 36.55934, 36.501976, 36.441811, 36.38679 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.5228, "volume": 85455, "typical_volume": 140218.3, "trend": 36.31895, "fair_value": 33.692875, "relative_strength": -7.121494, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.998149, "energy": 29.218282, "activity_lines": [ 36.556187, 36.512447, 36.456074, 36.401345 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.6799, "volume": 91844, "typical_volume": 140171.65, "trend": 36.345113, "fair_value": 33.729044, "relative_strength": -9.591005, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.590221, "energy": 34.051731, "activity_lines": [ 36.601213, 36.550522, 36.482905, 36.424632 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }