{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f1198c53-9573-44a6-9945-3759904b0503", "symbol": "MERY", "name": "Mercialys SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.823, "architecture_energy": 33.632, "architecture_maturity": 19.012, "architecture_confidence": 69.998, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.53, "rotation_up": 43.62, "upward_expansion": 74.73, "deceleration": 64.47, "rotation_down": 24.17, "downward_expansion": 3.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.836, 11.796727, 11.741802, 11.56176 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.88, "trend_reference": 11.216161, "distance_from_trend": 0.059186, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.349812, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.270614, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.907769, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.17211, "excess_performance": 0.118798, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059186, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060763, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.270614, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035277, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.039078, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076184, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.17211, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.511056, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 696759, "relative_activity": 0.968749, "balance": 1.511056, "dry_up": 0.89272, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0338, "annualized_volatility": 0.228461, "from_high_reference": -0.040388, "from_low_reference": 0.239602 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.216161, "fair_value_reference": 9.349812, "structural_low": 9.914832, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.018133, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.006917, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.114179, "worst_return": -0.132536, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.001773, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038924, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.157315, "worst_return": -0.189328, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.057072, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.045562, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.388331, "worst_return": -0.126838, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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33.064383, "activity_lines": [ 11.752, 11.742909, 11.618223, 11.363228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.68, "volume": 445251, "typical_volume": 787740.05, "trend": 11.018524, "fair_value": 9.23737, "relative_strength": 7.061179, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.659661, "energy": 28.014467, "activity_lines": [ 11.717333, 11.732727, 11.640485, 11.410056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.76, "volume": 647568, "typical_volume": 741807.05, "trend": 11.079417, "fair_value": 9.274527, "relative_strength": 7.192435, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.960305, "energy": 25.960981, "activity_lines": [ 11.726667, 11.735636, 11.668443, 11.457893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.96, "volume": 778727, "typical_volume": 742710.3, "trend": 11.150655, "fair_value": 9.312524, "relative_strength": 7.107975, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.006176, "energy": 34.008179, "activity_lines": [ 11.796, 11.773455, 11.711656, 11.514705 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.88, "volume": 696759, "typical_volume": 719235.95, "trend": 11.216161, "fair_value": 9.349812, "relative_strength": 3.907769, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.823254, "energy": 33.632006, "activity_lines": [ 11.836, 11.796727, 11.741802, 11.56176 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }