{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f1245279-0dde-4f1b-ac54-8ae3249c7d9f", "symbol": "SERT", "name": "Serstech AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.683, "architecture_energy": 42.856, "architecture_maturity": 4.482, "architecture_confidence": 36.974, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.13, "rotation_up": 59.29, "upward_expansion": 58.85, "deceleration": 22.14, "rotation_down": 20.16, "downward_expansion": 17.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.527333, 0.505218, 0.49206, 0.478569 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.494, "trend_reference": 0.479133, "distance_from_trend": 0.031028, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.817122, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.395439, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.456365, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.074906, "excess_performance": -0.136401, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031028, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087365, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.395439, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126672, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.164564, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111576, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.074906, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.58053, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1729268, "relative_activity": 1.317168, "balance": 0.58053, "dry_up": 0.974808, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.171442, "annualized_volatility": 0.768008, "from_high_reference": -0.340454, "from_low_reference": 0.625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.479133, "fair_value_reference": 0.817122, "structural_low": 0.304, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.039876, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017274, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.224377, "worst_return": -0.112654, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.286245, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.216482, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.633803, "worst_return": -0.319444, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.243827, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.36949, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.267606, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.032426, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.090983, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.633803, "worst_return": -0.568951, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016901, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.007772, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016304, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"relative_strength": -9.621869, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.23671, "energy": 12.966999, "activity_lines": [ 0.485933, 0.475127, 0.469393, 0.46816 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.558, "volume": 1091117, "typical_volume": 1320680.2, "trend": 0.482733, "fair_value": 0.819032, "relative_strength": -3.642801, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.947202, "energy": 33.162262, "activity_lines": [ 0.515533, 0.490309, 0.479769, 0.47298 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.558, "volume": 600723, "typical_volume": 1311032.55, "trend": 0.482633, "fair_value": 0.81875, "relative_strength": -4.426875, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.23394, "energy": 47.727735, "activity_lines": [ 0.536533, 0.503836, 0.489367, 0.477835 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.494, "volume": 1729268, "typical_volume": 1312868.3, "trend": 0.479133, "fair_value": 0.817122, "relative_strength": -16.456365, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.682519, "energy": 42.855681, "activity_lines": [ 0.527333, 0.505218, 0.49206, 0.478569 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }