{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f1247675-fa98-4a0b-b67f-82f35a1840e8", "symbol": "DIS", "name": "The Walt Disney Company", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 73.437, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.89, "architecture_energy": 18.919, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 57.815, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.0, "rotation_up": 25.39, "upward_expansion": 15.81, "deceleration": 62.29, "rotation_down": 38.15, "downward_expansion": 65.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 1715.511336, 1711.535266, 1733.958177, 1748.604354 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1800.0, "trend_reference": 1780.089757, "distance_from_trend": 0.011185, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1884.316049, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.044746, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.575888, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.040363, "excess_performance": 0.014303, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011185, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048237, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.044746, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039702, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.075759, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10104, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040363, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.908311, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12238, "relative_activity": 1.294513, "balance": 1.908311, "dry_up": 0.892979, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037749, "annualized_volatility": 0.225298, "from_high_reference": -0.195406, "from_low_reference": 0.111097 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1780.089757, "fair_value_reference": 1884.316049, "structural_low": 1620.02002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.024341, "positive_rate": 0.410256, "directional_follow_through": 0.589744, "median_excess_return": -0.020651, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.205713, "worst_return": -0.158626, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.012742, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.002214, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.407088, "worst_return": -0.338322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.082313, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.162257, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.345534, "worst_return": -0.391255, 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1751.026322, 1773.941321 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1706.0, "volume": 9421, "typical_volume": 11607.95, "trend": 1812.986754, "fair_value": 1879.738429, "relative_strength": -14.107973, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.366454, "energy": 58.108871, "activity_lines": [ 1702.204484, 1719.747046, 1745.648452, 1766.402391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1659.030029, "volume": 3093, "typical_volume": 11516.7, "trend": 1800.556423, "fair_value": 1881.196421, "relative_strength": -15.373823, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.238888, "energy": 63.994333, "activity_lines": [ 1683.3246, 1705.698639, 1736.340108, 1756.469699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1668.0, "volume": 9016, "typical_volume": 9289.95, "trend": 1789.356423, "fair_value": 1882.471446, "relative_strength": -14.861952, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.985346, "energy": 56.119578, "activity_lines": [ 1675.818669, 1695.516952, 1728.589619, 1747.917672 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1800.0, "volume": 12238, "typical_volume": 9453.75, "trend": 1780.089757, "fair_value": 1884.316049, "relative_strength": -7.575888, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.890098, "energy": 18.918946, "activity_lines": [ 1715.511336, 1711.535266, 1733.958177, 1748.604354 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }