{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "f129e996-96d4-4855-a056-a785e3f8d52e",
    "symbol": "IH2O",
    "name": "iShares Global Water UCITS ETF USD (Dist)",
    "exchange": "EBS",
    "country": "CH",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^SSMI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 85.289,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 38.638,
    "architecture_energy": 38.184,
    "architecture_maturity": 10.419,
    "architecture_confidence": 68.768,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 35.66,
        "rotation_up": 64.52,
        "upward_expansion": 45.37,
        "deceleration": 26.66,
        "rotation_down": 16.57,
        "downward_expansion": 18.04
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        77.342001,
        76.874001,
        76.037988,
        76.084954
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 78.720001,
    "trend_reference": 76.409626,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.030237,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 67.732864,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.162213,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -6.224791,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.002463,
    "excess_performance": -0.08042,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.030237,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.007196,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.162213,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.019748,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.062248,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.04039,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.002463,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.84688,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 20657,
      "relative_activity": 1.286067,
      "balance": 0.84688,
      "dry_up": 0.824687,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.022158,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.158018,
      "from_high_reference": -0.028023,
      "from_low_reference": 0.099982
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 76.409626,
      "fair_value_reference": 67.732864,
      "structural_low": 71.56478,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.007255,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011421,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.02522,
        "worst_return": -0.104386,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.033672,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.007284,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.077724,
        "worst_return": -0.03197,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.076588,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.008791,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.109543,
        "worst_return": 0.017716,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.098805,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.027618,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.182119,
        "worst_return": -0.000855,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-01",
        "end": "2024-12-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.005795,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-12-20",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.036124,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.016,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.047761,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.01363,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-09-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.052863,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-10-03",
        "end": "2025-10-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.017014,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-10-31",
        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.015853,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-11-21",
        "end": "2026-01-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.053384,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-23",
        "end": "2026-05-08",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.021934,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-05-15",
        "end": "2026-05-22",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.001433,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-05-29",
        "end": "2026-06-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.003005,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2026-07-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.040708,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.010137,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "typical_volume": 13654.25,
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        "direction": 35.769698,
        "energy": 26.846833,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 77.156097,
        "volume": 11768,
        "typical_volume": 13022.9,
        "trend": 75.997987,
        "fair_value": 66.164367,
        "relative_strength": -0.583398,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 29.781312,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "volume": 16695,
        "typical_volume": 13210.6,
        "trend": 76.065131,
        "fair_value": 66.283002,
        "relative_strength": -2.185741,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 24.616311,
        "energy": 15.30277,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 72.90551,
        "volume": 80229,
        "typical_volume": 17078.95,
        "trend": 75.987309,
        "fair_value": 66.384961,
        "relative_strength": -6.635325,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -27.54608,
        "energy": 30.207084,
        "activity_lines": [
          75.435335,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 73.010002,
        "volume": 12229,
        "typical_volume": 17627.85,
        "trend": 75.886345,
        "fair_value": 66.498935,
        "relative_strength": -8.37272,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -37.389194,
        "energy": 46.60087,
        "activity_lines": [
          74.365809,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 73.209999,
        "volume": 10905,
        "typical_volume": 17611.25,
        "trend": 75.863705,
        "fair_value": 66.606668,
        "relative_strength": -8.277973,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -35.265032,
        "energy": 54.188088,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 73.43,
        "volume": 4357,
        "typical_volume": 17507.6,
        "trend": 75.838209,
        "fair_value": 66.705639,
        "relative_strength": -6.871623,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -60.906872,
        "energy": 69.162435,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 73.449997,
        "volume": 1898,
        "typical_volume": 16976.65,
        "trend": 75.784522,
        "fair_value": 66.797523,
        "relative_strength": -8.860601,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -60.538244,
        "energy": 66.786559,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 16318.05,
        "trend": 75.833677,
        "fair_value": 66.904191,
        "relative_strength": -7.95749,
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -56.706149,
        "energy": 51.857825,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 1156,
        "typical_volume": 15960.95,
        "trend": 75.885639,
        "fair_value": 67.020939,
        "relative_strength": -7.773031,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -25.607771,
        "energy": 17.570899,
        "activity_lines": [
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          75.120774,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 77.940002,
        "volume": 647,
        "typical_volume": 15355.4,
        "trend": 75.985923,
        "fair_value": 67.153629,
        "relative_strength": -7.522727,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 0.444174,
        "energy": 15.862071,
        "activity_lines": [
          75.959334,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 76.440002,
        "volume": 9115,
        "typical_volume": 15435.7,
        "trend": 76.063352,
        "fair_value": 67.264865,
        "relative_strength": -7.882086,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 6.514907,
        "energy": 24.937237,
        "activity_lines": [
          76.388668,
          75.277037,
          75.364427,
          75.796717
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 77.93,
        "volume": 11950,
        "typical_volume": 15545.55,
        "trend": 76.186476,
        "fair_value": 67.379055,
        "relative_strength": -6.599584,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 33.727774,
        "energy": 40.118501,
        "activity_lines": [
          77.114001,
          75.863374,
          75.580097,
          75.917145
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 76.25,
        "volume": 7103,
        "typical_volume": 15014.55,
        "trend": 76.24433,
        "fair_value": 67.482476,
        "relative_strength": -8.286152,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 20.819497,
        "energy": 35.579582,
        "activity_lines": [
          76.980667,
          76.104182,
          75.649439,
          75.921244
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 76.370003,
        "volume": 13275,
        "typical_volume": 15331.35,
        "trend": 76.308171,
        "fair_value": 67.598936,
        "relative_strength": -8.022462,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 17.918502,
        "energy": 26.045478,
        "activity_lines": [
          76.764001,
          76.306001,
          75.735754,
          75.929352
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 78.720001,
        "volume": 20657,
        "typical_volume": 16062.15,
        "trend": 76.409626,
        "fair_value": 67.732864,
        "relative_strength": -6.224791,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 38.637691,
        "energy": 38.183898,
        "activity_lines": [
          77.342001,
          76.874001,
          76.037988,
          76.084954
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}