{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "f129f8cb-a2e4-4233-a5bb-6830967cf806",
    "symbol": "SUH",
    "name": "Sutton Harbour Group plc",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 22.587,
    "architecture_energy": 26.713,
    "architecture_maturity": 29.629,
    "architecture_confidence": 47.282,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 47.23,
        "rotation_up": 42.86,
        "upward_expansion": 49.78,
        "deceleration": 31.74,
        "rotation_down": 25.34,
        "downward_expansion": 12.78
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.042,
        0.041227,
        0.039786,
        0.038774
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 0.0425,
    "trend_reference": 0.0388,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.095361,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 0.083603,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.491642,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -12.981126,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.076087,
    "excess_performance": -0.127322,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.095361,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.062802,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.491642,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.11841,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.129811,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.176999,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.076087,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 5.0,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 70798,
      "relative_activity": 0.464183,
      "balance": 5.0,
      "dry_up": 0.415713,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.18905,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.864874,
      "from_high_reference": -0.392857,
      "from_low_reference": 1.65625
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.0388,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.083603,
      "structural_low": 0.016,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 19,
        "median_return": 0.0,
        "positive_rate": 0.263158,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.263158,
        "median_excess_return": -0.021673,
        "regime_survival": 0.789474,
        "best_return": 0.066667,
        "worst_return": -0.142857,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.04,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.094921,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.0,
        "worst_return": -0.214286,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.148182,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.187887,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.0,
        "worst_return": -0.261905,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.25,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.32202,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": -0.12,
        "worst_return": -0.428571,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2021-07-09",
        "end": "2021-10-01",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.020408,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2021-10-08",
        "end": "2021-11-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.08,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2021-12-03",
        "end": "2022-01-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.043478,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2022-01-28",
        "end": "2022-03-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.125,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2022-04-01",
        "end": "2022-06-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.047619,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2022-06-24",
        "end": "2023-04-21",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.022727,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-04-28",
        "end": "2023-06-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.088889,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-06-09",
        "end": "2024-08-16",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.475,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-08-23",
        "end": "2024-09-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.071429,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-09-13",
        "end": "2026-05-22",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.615385,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-05-29",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.133333,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
      {
        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 0.17,
        "volume": 26177,
        "typical_volume": 24478.35,
        "trend": 0.2065,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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          0.03958
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 189616.55,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 189062.35,
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        "stage": 4,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 189154.6,
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        "fair_value": 0.092849,
        "relative_strength": -29.19057,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "energy": 8.169413,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 207045.6,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "energy": 7.582818,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 0,
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        "fair_value": 0.088939,
        "relative_strength": -21.041176,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -7.698198,
        "energy": 10.228809,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.039833,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 809,
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        "trend": 0.039817,
        "fair_value": 0.08801,
        "relative_strength": -21.257001,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 9.847983,
        "energy": 11.612716,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.04,
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          0.038062
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 0.04,
        "volume": 1870,
        "typical_volume": 147165.1,
        "trend": 0.039483,
        "fair_value": 0.08708,
        "relative_strength": -18.850868,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 9.177867,
        "energy": 7.210133,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.04,
          0.039545,
          0.037905,
          0.038074
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 0.04,
        "volume": 4383,
        "typical_volume": 147129.05,
        "trend": 0.039217,
        "fair_value": 0.086151,
        "relative_strength": -18.580741,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 16.563535,
        "energy": 9.034447,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.04,
          0.039727,
          0.038226,
          0.038108
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.0425,
        "volume": 118645,
        "typical_volume": 152892.6,
        "trend": 0.039033,
        "fair_value": 0.085237,
        "relative_strength": -13.647422,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 22.287488,
        "energy": 14.722836,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.040833,
          0.040318,
          0.038774,
          0.038319
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.0425,
        "volume": 59795,
        "typical_volume": 151078.65,
        "trend": 0.038917,
        "fair_value": 0.08442,
        "relative_strength": -13.716065,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 22.197305,
        "energy": 19.780144,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.0415,
          0.040818,
          0.039298,
          0.038543
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.0425,
        "volume": 70798,
        "typical_volume": 152521.6,
        "trend": 0.0388,
        "fair_value": 0.083603,
        "relative_strength": -12.981126,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 22.587007,
        "energy": 26.713382,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.042,
          0.041227,
          0.039786,
          0.038774
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}