{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f12b387d-046b-40e5-9eba-707f09d23292", "symbol": "UC79", "name": "UBS MSCI EM Socially Responsible UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.953, "architecture_energy": 25.034, "architecture_maturity": 68.076, "architecture_confidence": 88.166, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.4, "rotation_up": 25.43, "upward_expansion": 57.84, "deceleration": 88.32, "rotation_down": 33.05, "downward_expansion": 19.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 1683.733333, 1710.168182, 1697.971429, 1644.591475 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1714.0, "trend_reference": 1574.713888, "distance_from_trend": 0.088452, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1179.699817, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.452912, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.557525, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.193716, "excess_performance": 0.142481, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088452, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090439, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.452912, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046307, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.085575, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117274, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.193716, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.58798, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 150757, "relative_activity": 0.740921, "balance": 0.58798, "dry_up": 1.178078, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050009, "annualized_volatility": 0.253845, "from_high_reference": -0.072511, "from_low_reference": 0.462608 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1574.713888, "fair_value_reference": 1179.699817, "structural_low": 1346.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.004152, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.000782, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.130665, "worst_return": -0.084122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.04108, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.017712, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.140144, "worst_return": -0.048033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.135307, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.069763, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.338315, "worst_return": -0.058161, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012848, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022386, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097785, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0644, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.078898, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": 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145154, "typical_volume": 208055.95, "trend": 1553.729468, "fair_value": 1170.841714, "relative_strength": 8.644176, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.561528, "energy": 26.800099, "activity_lines": [ 1699.9, 1727.877273, 1686.654762, 1628.292353 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1656.0, "volume": 247941, "typical_volume": 207774.4, "trend": 1563.634139, "fair_value": 1174.947173, "relative_strength": 5.585153, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.193763, "energy": 25.398319, "activity_lines": [ 1679.033333, 1713.577273, 1690.185714, 1634.890451 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1714.0, "volume": 150757, "typical_volume": 203472.35, "trend": 1574.713888, "fair_value": 1179.699817, "relative_strength": 8.557525, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.952618, "energy": 25.034206, "activity_lines": [ 1683.733333, 1710.168182, 1697.971429, 1644.591475 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }