{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f12e7a57-a7c8-4fc7-9492-15018763081f", "symbol": "MTBA", "name": "SIMPLIFY EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS SIMPLIFY MBS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.413, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.439, "architecture_energy": 56.774, "architecture_maturity": 20.577, "architecture_confidence": 89.003, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.11, "rotation_up": 13.65, "upward_expansion": 11.94, "deceleration": 39.15, "rotation_down": 64.94, "downward_expansion": 87.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.573055, 48.673736, 48.768047, 48.871346 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 48.68, "trend_reference": 49.033469, "distance_from_trend": -0.007209, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.789935, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.040395, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.354638, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.015858, "excess_performance": -0.141483, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007209, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00167, "read": "Falling" 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48.202466, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.002888, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010587, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.002517, "worst_return": -0.008293, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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49.033413 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 48.694623, "volume": 699499, "typical_volume": 956589.95, "trend": 49.120351, "fair_value": 46.739003, "relative_strength": -10.280203, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.820415, "energy": 24.510517, "activity_lines": [ 48.838069, 48.836644, 48.898558, 49.005561 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.749364, "volume": 410851, "typical_volume": 928648.55, "trend": 49.109087, "fair_value": 46.753261, "relative_strength": -8.513635, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.493866, "energy": 32.786652, "activity_lines": [ 48.792524, 48.822156, 48.875599, 48.981626 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.440824, "volume": 454155, "typical_volume": 896958.05, "trend": 49.083426, "fair_value": 46.765145, "relative_strength": -8.322199, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.14176, "energy": 57.651462, "activity_lines": [ 48.658912, 48.757203, 48.828622, 48.938513 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.42, "volume": 930855, "typical_volume": 873221.2, "trend": 49.057663, "fair_value": 46.776717, "relative_strength": -9.04567, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.105019, "energy": 65.105988, "activity_lines": [ 48.555036, 48.689804, 48.784433, 48.895711 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.68, "volume": 683997, "typical_volume": 856590.75, "trend": 49.033469, "fair_value": 46.789935, "relative_strength": -11.354638, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.438938, "energy": 56.773836, "activity_lines": [ 48.573055, 48.673736, 48.768047, 48.871346 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }