{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f13874a6-2d99-4e28-811e-3dd555dd4c47", "symbol": "300639", "name": "Guangdong Hybribio Biotech Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.368, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.45, "architecture_energy": 18.294, "architecture_maturity": 57.181, "architecture_confidence": 64.718, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.61, "rotation_up": 30.23, "upward_expansion": 21.23, "deceleration": 43.69, "rotation_down": 20.65, "downward_expansion": 52.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.558, 5.415091, 5.592857, 5.819806 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.85, "trend_reference": 6.070667, "distance_from_trend": -0.03635, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.513178, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.101821, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.570488, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.234293, "excess_performance": -0.241693, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03635, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021123, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.101821, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045341, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055705, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082483, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.234293, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.813937, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 96111476, "relative_activity": 0.981119, "balance": 0.813937, "dry_up": 1.060189, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096778, "annualized_volatility": 0.319467, "from_high_reference": -0.419067, "from_low_reference": 0.206186 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.070667, "fair_value_reference": 6.513178, "structural_low": 4.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.006369, "positive_rate": 0.483871, "directional_follow_through": 0.516129, "median_excess_return": 0.002768, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.25856, "worst_return": -0.203351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.02994, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.027245, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.363239, "worst_return": -0.287048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.128894, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.171577, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.22697, "worst_return": -0.260733, "sufficient": true }, { 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"trend": 6.069, "fair_value": 6.635991, "relative_strength": -22.322321, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.286495, "energy": 67.472391, "activity_lines": [ 5.199333, 5.384364, 5.758048, 5.961527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.24, "volume": 88902841, "typical_volume": 95772161.35, "trend": 6.06, "fair_value": 6.606046, "relative_strength": -13.860212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.035776, "energy": 55.678534, "activity_lines": [ 5.208, 5.315273, 5.681476, 5.908043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.39, "volume": 101708166, "typical_volume": 95746732.1, "trend": 6.052667, "fair_value": 6.573385, "relative_strength": -11.114294, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.602235, "energy": 38.561437, "activity_lines": [ 5.272, 5.295455, 5.626429, 5.864817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.56, "volume": 128706610, "typical_volume": 97964254.85, "trend": 6.055, "fair_value": 6.541433, "relative_strength": -6.256793, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.444105, "energy": 27.614679, "activity_lines": [ 5.389333, 5.323273, 5.593286, 5.833032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.85, "volume": 96111476, "typical_volume": 97961092.1, "trend": 6.070667, "fair_value": 6.513178, "relative_strength": -5.570488, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.450284, "energy": 18.293662, "activity_lines": [ 5.558, 5.415091, 5.592857, 5.819806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }