{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f13a7605-75c2-4c44-ba4a-a24f576715f2", "symbol": "INDGW", "name": "Amundi ETF ICAV - Amundi S&P World Industrials Screened UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.477, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.053, "architecture_energy": 56.002, "architecture_maturity": 83.361, "architecture_confidence": 47.652, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.19, "rotation_up": 49.79, "upward_expansion": 75.16, "deceleration": 71.38, "rotation_down": 28.34, "downward_expansion": 13.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.7652, 18.730363, 18.431581, 18.10289 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.124001, "trend_reference": 17.696067, "distance_from_trend": 0.080692, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.619084, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.308153, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.898691, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.114452, "excess_performance": -0.056439, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080692, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058234, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.308153, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042719, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018987, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020912, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.114452, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.231385, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17967, "relative_activity": 0.792598, "balance": 0.231385, "dry_up": 0.630059, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021801, "annualized_volatility": 0.150883, "from_high_reference": -0.004788, "from_low_reference": 0.290941 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.696067, "fair_value_reference": 14.619084, "structural_low": 15.882, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.004083, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.007705, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.090954, "worst_return": -0.083475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.052098, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.022297, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.105243, "worst_return": -0.018558, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.094206, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.01101, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.186409, "worst_return": 0.002003, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 17.605733, "fair_value": 14.589831, "relative_strength": -2.630164, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.160156, "energy": 48.048006, "activity_lines": [ 18.624133, 18.620763, 18.316276, 18.004938 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.124001, "volume": 17967, "typical_volume": 22668.5, "trend": 17.696067, "fair_value": 14.619084, "relative_strength": -1.898691, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.05267, "energy": 56.001818, "activity_lines": [ 18.7652, 18.730363, 18.431581, 18.10289 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }