{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f13bdee4-dc7f-4754-835c-f8b841e357cf", "symbol": "2630", "name": "Air Asia Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 60.573, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 35.573, "architecture_energy": 24.104, "architecture_maturity": 37.532, "architecture_confidence": 42.834, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.29, "rotation_up": 48.39, "upward_expansion": 43.87, "deceleration": 45.92, "rotation_down": 26.08, "downward_expansion": 13.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.96, 50.647273, 48.265715, 48.041154 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 53.099998, "trend_reference": 48.306778, "distance_from_trend": 0.099225, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 40.062248, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.325437, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.569578, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.119089, "excess_performance": -0.322283, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.099225, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007545, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.325437, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.237816, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.265696, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121784, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.119089, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.086303, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12880123, "relative_activity": 0.755872, "balance": 1.086303, "dry_up": 1.655904, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09858, "annualized_volatility": 0.567817, "from_high_reference": -0.323505, "from_low_reference": 0.391874 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.306778, "fair_value_reference": 40.062248, "structural_low": 38.150002, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.049133, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.056152, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.009119, "worst_return": -0.134409, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.014451, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.007669, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.013468, "worst_return": -0.086208, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.021924, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.021425, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.114335, "worst_return": -0.107065, "sufficient": false 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47.497273, 47.755612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.299999, "volume": 18718970, "typical_volume": 16381322.9, "trend": 48.375016, "fair_value": 39.919864, "relative_strength": -30.156959, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.421276, "energy": 44.028401, "activity_lines": [ 52.060001, 49.433637, 47.601667, 47.741827 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.200001, "volume": 11491385, "typical_volume": 16690985.5, "trend": 48.285427, "fair_value": 39.958898, "relative_strength": -31.592585, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.381269, "energy": 20.533885, "activity_lines": [ 50.440001, 49.644546, 47.698334, 47.730536 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 53.099998, "volume": 12880123, "typical_volume": 17040082.75, "trend": 48.306778, "fair_value": 40.062248, "relative_strength": -26.569578, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.572627, "energy": 24.104349, "activity_lines": [ 50.96, 50.647273, 48.265715, 48.041154 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }