{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f13c5303-ac53-4758-a2b7-fbbbe66aa5c6", "symbol": "CY6U", "name": "CapitaLand India Trust", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -13.84, "architecture_energy": 10.829, "architecture_maturity": 27.827, "architecture_confidence": 54.8, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.31, "rotation_up": 30.89, "upward_expansion": 32.89, "deceleration": 46.84, "rotation_down": 24.26, "downward_expansion": 45.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.041333, 1.036, 1.032095, 1.045898 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.05, "trend_reference": 1.079326, "distance_from_trend": -0.02717, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.990842, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.059705, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.147489, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.150028, "excess_performance": -0.304863, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02717, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036853, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.059705, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000719, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.201475, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071521, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.150028, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.312501, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19673000, "relative_activity": 1.098836, "balance": 0.312501, "dry_up": 1.245699, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026374, "annualized_volatility": 0.209053, "from_high_reference": -0.182066, "from_low_reference": 0.05 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.079326, "fair_value_reference": 0.990842, "structural_low": 1.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.007195, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.017433, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.086295, "worst_return": -0.083718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.014493, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.008983, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.178218, "worst_return": -0.096005, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.012253, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039388, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.218882, "worst_return": -0.1695, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.023402, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069308, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.079887, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022723, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06422, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009524, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.917967, "volume": 18241800, "typical_volume": 10478359.5, "trend": 0.901255, "fair_value": 0.957523, "relative_strength": 4.178136, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", 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1.087198, "fair_value": 0.988875, "relative_strength": -21.765283, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.147197, "energy": 39.325144, "activity_lines": [ 1.024667, 1.025091, 1.027952, 1.049799 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.06, "volume": 22053000, "typical_volume": 19068380.5, "trend": 1.083269, "fair_value": 0.98989, "relative_strength": -18.822692, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.929864, "energy": 13.581819, "activity_lines": [ 1.035333, 1.031818, 1.030571, 1.048044 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.05, "volume": 19673000, "typical_volume": 17903485.5, "trend": 1.079326, "fair_value": 0.990842, "relative_strength": -20.147489, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.839889, "energy": 10.828678, "activity_lines": [ 1.041333, 1.036, 1.032095, 1.045898 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }