{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f13c75a2-58ec-44ab-91ee-83068e6abf88", "symbol": "ALEUP", "name": "Europlasma S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.003, "architecture_energy": 90.201, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 63.28, "downward_expansion": 100.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.000867, 0.001287, 0.003636, 0.009188 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0008, "trend_reference": 0.022523, "distance_from_trend": -0.964481, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33168.195172, "distance_from_fair_value": -1.0, "fair_value_direction": "Stable", "relative_strength": -99.906057, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.982979, "excess_performance": -1.03629, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.964481, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.8402, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -1.0, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.999061, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000358, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.982979, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.480502, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 149456565, "relative_activity": 0.901795, "balance": 0.480502, "dry_up": 1.263469, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 1.038462, "annualized_volatility": 2.115678, "from_high_reference": -0.999918, "from_low_reference": 0.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.022523, "fair_value_reference": 33168.195172, "structural_low": 0.0006, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 60, "median_return": -0.402286, "positive_rate": 0.116667, "directional_follow_through": 0.883333, "median_excess_return": -0.381235, "regime_survival": 0.983333, "best_return": 2624.0, "worst_return": -0.811765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.755566, "positive_rate": 0.055556, "directional_follow_through": 0.944444, "median_excess_return": -0.73523, "regime_survival": 0.944444, "best_return": 263.285714, "worst_return": -0.919355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.968932, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.892101, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 73.0, "worst_return": -0.991579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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55844.477208, "relative_strength": -99.929494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.30938, "energy": 91.330074, "activity_lines": [ 0.001493, 0.002142, 0.006197, 0.016151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0008, "volume": 251178687, "typical_volume": 154868109.3, "trend": 0.036067, "fair_value": 48544.797726, "relative_strength": -99.933506, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.686875, "energy": 91.12419, "activity_lines": [ 0.001147, 0.001785, 0.00522, 0.013256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0008, "volume": 172370121, "typical_volume": 161671687.15, "trend": 0.028597, "fair_value": 40531.977218, "relative_strength": -99.920047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.083491, "energy": 90.57756, "activity_lines": [ 0.000947, 0.001505, 0.004386, 0.010981 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0008, "volume": 149456565, "typical_volume": 165732363.7, "trend": 0.022523, "fair_value": 33168.195172, "relative_strength": -99.906057, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.003073, "energy": 90.200839, "activity_lines": [ 0.000867, 0.001287, 0.003636, 0.009188 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }