{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f13eb0b1-fd43-440f-9c36-6f9dfdc260d2", "symbol": "MODTX", "name": "Modus Therapeutics Holding AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 78.444, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.66, "architecture_energy": 30.846, "architecture_maturity": 15.613, "architecture_confidence": 66.359, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.45, "rotation_up": 17.92, "upward_expansion": 25.02, "deceleration": 53.21, "rotation_down": 59.14, "downward_expansion": 48.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.366867, 0.375164, 0.400143, 0.388824 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.362, "trend_reference": 0.367933, "distance_from_trend": -0.016126, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.214185, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.701858, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.885572, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.292857, "excess_performance": 0.231363, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016126, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037406, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.701858, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027816, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.408856, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111125, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.292857, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.094395, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 736702, "relative_activity": 0.231954, "balance": 1.094395, "dry_up": 0.245808, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.160008, "annualized_volatility": 0.690062, "from_high_reference": -0.905483, "from_low_reference": 0.740385 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.367933, "fair_value_reference": 1.214185, "structural_low": 0.208, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.065147, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.02704, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.484375, "worst_return": -0.117241, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.035156, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.048719, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.064378, "worst_return": -0.166124, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.139219, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.182727, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.136808, "worst_return": -0.141631, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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28.897864, "energy": 15.513386, "activity_lines": [ 0.414667, 0.4332, 0.411857, 0.386673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.373, "volume": 1011398, "typical_volume": 3123044.85, "trend": 0.3614, "fair_value": 1.275589, "relative_strength": -52.693719, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.587717, "energy": 17.518066, "activity_lines": [ 0.395067, 0.420218, 0.411095, 0.387428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.373, "volume": 1394725, "typical_volume": 3162015.4, "trend": 0.361733, "fair_value": 1.26298, "relative_strength": -50.212319, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.919181, "energy": 14.739427, "activity_lines": [ 0.3816, 0.409545, 0.410043, 0.388176 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.367, "volume": 1016663, "typical_volume": 3142636.0, "trend": 0.363133, "fair_value": 1.25091, "relative_strength": -49.026149, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.00945, "energy": 15.337199, "activity_lines": [ 0.373067, 0.398455, 0.408157, 0.388516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.37, "volume": 525584, "typical_volume": 3154320.6, "trend": 0.365567, "fair_value": 1.238346, "relative_strength": -46.1218, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.436557, "energy": 14.78698, "activity_lines": [ 0.3704, 0.389418, 0.40619, 0.388959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.369, "volume": 843867, "typical_volume": 3177047.85, "trend": 0.367533, "fair_value": 1.226544, "relative_strength": -46.157149, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.226325, "energy": 22.492347, "activity_lines": [ 0.369667, 0.382273, 0.403743, 0.389181 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.362, "volume": 736702, "typical_volume": 3176069.4, "trend": 0.367933, "fair_value": 1.214185, "relative_strength": -40.885572, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.659805, "energy": 30.845561, "activity_lines": [ 0.366867, 0.375164, 0.400143, 0.388824 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }