{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f1403a51-4e84-423d-9f7d-fa607eeb27bf", "symbol": "688088", "name": "ArcSoft Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.664, "architecture_energy": 51.694, "architecture_maturity": 64.753, "architecture_confidence": 88.621, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.56, "rotation_up": 17.86, "upward_expansion": 7.59, "deceleration": 56.39, "rotation_down": 56.32, "downward_expansion": 76.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.072, 33.824612, 36.280815, 38.303046 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 34.57, "trend_reference": 41.879284, "distance_from_trend": -0.174532, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.765016, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.130643, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.769688, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.322953, "excess_performance": -0.27975, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.174532, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099832, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.130643, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220841, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.247697, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070296, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.322953, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.742768, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39793417, "relative_activity": 1.354193, "balance": 0.742768, "dry_up": 1.297596, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108728, "annualized_volatility": 0.454875, "from_high_reference": -0.473202, "from_low_reference": 0.171864 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.879284, "fair_value_reference": 39.765016, "structural_low": 29.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.010069, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.011659, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.347853, "worst_return": -0.212822, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.106627, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.069605, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.597964, "worst_return": -0.368629, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.135729, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.121317, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.921623, "worst_return": -0.254327, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.9, "volume": 36765384, "typical_volume": 27851893.8, "trend": 43.417284, "fair_value": 39.886168, "relative_strength": -29.077979, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.572176, "energy": 63.404341, "activity_lines": [ 34.359422, 35.755609, 38.067984, 40.281208 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.049999, "volume": 39763216, "typical_volume": 27924572.6, "trend": 42.867284, "fair_value": 39.819967, "relative_strength": -33.526237, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.432787, "energy": 65.03864, "activity_lines": [ 32.707333, 34.416498, 37.156182, 39.418803 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.380001, "volume": 36199109, "typical_volume": 28427026.3, "trend": 42.376951, "fair_value": 39.777682, "relative_strength": -25.950619, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.280379, "energy": 56.446294, "activity_lines": [ 32.691333, 33.911894, 36.634951, 38.80672 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.57, "volume": 39793417, "typical_volume": 29385334.15, "trend": 41.879284, "fair_value": 39.765016, "relative_strength": -24.769688, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.663846, "energy": 51.69364, "activity_lines": [ 33.072, 33.824612, 36.280815, 38.303046 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }