{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f152a88f-8491-462b-9439-0af042f64893", "symbol": "2061", "name": "Feng Ching Metal Corporation", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.422, "architecture_energy": 27.742, "architecture_maturity": 77.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.82, "rotation_up": 25.75, "upward_expansion": 63.14, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 27.75, "downward_expansion": 17.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.713334, 57.482727, 49.28619, 41.568924 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 50.700001, "trend_reference": 32.673333, "distance_from_trend": 0.551724, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.705579, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.335805, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 47.504061, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.801105, "excess_performance": 1.359733, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.551724, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.653648, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.335805, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 1.224005, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.475041, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.695941, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.801105, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.237474, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15180786, "relative_activity": 1.617042, "balance": 2.237474, "dry_up": 1.408693, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.234335, "annualized_volatility": 0.953525, "from_high_reference": -0.409091, "from_low_reference": 2.38 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.673333, "fair_value_reference": 21.705579, "structural_low": 15.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.005102, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.02081, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.177778, "worst_return": -0.119101, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.023055, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027637, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.071111, "worst_return": -0.182022, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.1321, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.066126, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.1275, "worst_return": -0.178988, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.157778, 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"2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.251131, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.016667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116477, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00505, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.091623, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": 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"direction": 66.278657, "energy": 66.369936, "activity_lines": [ 61.493332, 57.293635, 44.228809, 36.966344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.5, "volume": 13724693, "typical_volume": 8173105.55, "trend": 30.341666, "fair_value": 21.259746, "relative_strength": 75.44365, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.822205, "energy": 56.257986, "activity_lines": [ 58.639999, 58.075453, 46.228095, 38.668602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.200001, "volume": 10376221, "typical_volume": 8647609.6, "trend": 31.603333, "fair_value": 21.49949, "relative_strength": 70.903826, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.601965, "energy": 37.250021, "activity_lines": [ 56.493333, 58.459999, 48.11238, 40.336881 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 50.700001, "volume": 15180786, "typical_volume": 9387997.55, "trend": 32.673333, "fair_value": 21.705579, "relative_strength": 47.504061, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.422024, "energy": 27.741967, "activity_lines": [ 53.713334, 57.482727, 49.28619, 41.568924 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }