{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f157d196-2118-49c4-a777-5ae58eb5c0c2", "symbol": "603985", "name": "Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.791, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -39.105, "architecture_energy": 74.322, "architecture_maturity": 20.224, "architecture_confidence": 71.239, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.92, "rotation_up": 16.03, "upward_expansion": 26.17, "deceleration": 43.01, "rotation_down": 72.98, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.316, 18.566545, 21.136997, 21.167055 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.84, "trend_reference": 20.481698, "distance_from_trend": -0.177803, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.17544, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.073475, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.659251, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.042049, "excess_performance": 0.085253, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.177803, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09517, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.073475, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.653067, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086593, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.600991, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042049, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.185889, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71472100, "relative_activity": 0.554054, "balance": 0.185889, "dry_up": 0.598355, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.153975, "annualized_volatility": 0.608772, "from_high_reference": -0.42969, "from_low_reference": 0.234005 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.481698, "fair_value_reference": 18.17544, "structural_low": 14.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.034246, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04227, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.430121, "worst_return": -0.304122, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.240009, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.197201, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.779744, "worst_return": -0.18823, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.047119, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.085681, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.647984, "worst_return": -0.491826, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.112817, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.086412, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087605, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061916, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108142, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.186405, "active": false }, { 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20.391386, "fair_value": 18.283534, "relative_strength": -9.279354, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.502916, "energy": 38.610594, "activity_lines": [ 20.362666, 21.979401, 23.032106, 22.05878 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.36, "volume": 82291262, "typical_volume": 136879375.6, "trend": 20.423227, "fair_value": 18.249308, "relative_strength": -14.353809, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.782495, "energy": 66.280967, "activity_lines": [ 18.253333, 20.554664, 22.346847, 21.734174 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.22, "volume": 77973823, "typical_volume": 134659058.5, "trend": 20.427126, "fair_value": 18.209387, "relative_strength": -15.271593, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.845153, "energy": 74.469075, "activity_lines": [ 16.758, 19.315818, 21.658194, 21.398482 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.84, "volume": 71472100, "typical_volume": 128998405.2, "trend": 20.481698, "fair_value": 18.17544, "relative_strength": -8.659251, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.105031, "energy": 74.322063, "activity_lines": [ 16.316, 18.566545, 21.136997, 21.167055 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }