{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f15afc70-4844-47a0-ad37-6ad2118f8e73", "symbol": "MC", "name": "LVMH Mo\u00ebt Hennessy - Louis Vuitton, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Europ\u00e9enne", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.247, "architecture_energy": 25.766, "architecture_maturity": 26.264, "architecture_confidence": 63.246, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.33, "rotation_up": 11.95, "upward_expansion": 9.98, "deceleration": 59.06, "rotation_down": 53.06, "downward_expansion": 64.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 476.576662, 483.575452, 481.875625, 482.73685 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 479.549988, "trend_reference": 493.410763, "distance_from_trend": -0.028092, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 596.425622, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.19596, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.081704, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.087725, "excess_performance": -0.261972, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028092, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080554, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.19596, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044457, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.260817, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030835, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.087725, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.677468, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 433, "relative_activity": 1.103888, "balance": 1.677468, "dry_up": 1.8413, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048475, "annualized_volatility": 0.296889, "from_high_reference": -0.254494, "from_low_reference": 0.08826 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 493.410763, "fair_value_reference": 596.425622, "structural_low": 441.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.016386, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.016071, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.192839, "worst_return": -0.04406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.003818, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014441, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.237788, "worst_return": -0.185841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.014663, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.108919, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.069775, "worst_return": -0.225935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.116678, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032049, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008508, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.036218, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004103, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", 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-27.538307, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.023541, "energy": 24.647524, "activity_lines": [ 482.206667, 487.954546, 481.902523, 486.00573 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 472.649994, "volume": 1183, "typical_volume": 384.05, "trend": 498.736367, "fair_value": 598.258536, "relative_strength": -25.301352, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.775786, "energy": 26.004875, "activity_lines": [ 477.496665, 485.13909, 481.548145, 483.974681 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 479.549988, "volume": 433, "typical_volume": 392.25, "trend": 493.410763, "fair_value": 596.425622, "relative_strength": -26.081704, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.246789, "energy": 25.765745, "activity_lines": [ 476.576662, 483.575452, 481.875625, 482.73685 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }