{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f15b2bc5-f58b-4860-b852-930426f58d45", "symbol": "000715", "name": "Zhongxing Shenyang Commercial Building Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.37, "architecture_energy": 48.856, "architecture_maturity": 65.988, "architecture_confidence": 89.241, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.41, "rotation_up": 27.73, "upward_expansion": 8.23, "deceleration": 58.22, "rotation_down": 43.38, "downward_expansion": 76.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.705333, 4.715859, 4.958766, 5.210901 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.8, "trend_reference": 5.560161, "distance_from_trend": -0.136716, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.285268, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.091815, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.040988, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.244094, "excess_performance": -0.251494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.136716, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082596, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.091815, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17206, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20041, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013259, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.244094, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.200778, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27310399, "relative_activity": 0.500287, "balance": 0.200778, "dry_up": 0.677429, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069775, "annualized_volatility": 0.263913, "from_high_reference": -0.32299, "from_low_reference": 0.085973 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.560161, "fair_value_reference": 5.285268, "structural_low": 4.42, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.007797, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.027024, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.263492, "worst_return": -0.219849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.050624, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.099409, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.498551, "worst_return": -0.205527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.211344, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.186552, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.391499, "worst_return": -0.1, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042775, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001724, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012456, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028319, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.116751, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033386, 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"typical_volume": 55425078.9, "trend": 5.674161, "fair_value": 5.299081, "relative_strength": -24.413738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.910256, "energy": 61.903241, "activity_lines": [ 4.642667, 4.73128, 5.055145, 5.322772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.75, "volume": 35488491, "typical_volume": 55159703.1, "trend": 5.609828, "fair_value": 5.293364, "relative_strength": -17.415205, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.236328, "energy": 54.096677, "activity_lines": [ 4.670667, 4.713577, 5.001408, 5.263148 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.8, "volume": 27310399, "typical_volume": 54589436.4, "trend": 5.560161, "fair_value": 5.285268, "relative_strength": -20.040988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.370307, "energy": 48.855569, "activity_lines": [ 4.705333, 4.715859, 4.958766, 5.210901 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }