{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f15fd6d9-7649-4686-8c31-99ff1a86448b", "symbol": "TOST", "name": "Toast, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 68.614, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 67.024, "architecture_energy": 87.347, "architecture_maturity": 26.939, "architecture_confidence": 71.631, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.23, "rotation_up": 85.25, "upward_expansion": 71.96, "deceleration": 18.01, "rotation_down": 16.01, "downward_expansion": 27.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 558.120003, 524.679639, 493.093574, 490.453486 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 600.0, "trend_reference": 495.157668, "distance_from_trend": 0.211735, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 553.194423, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.08461, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.20594, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.260504, "excess_performance": 0.315171, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.211735, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09757, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.08461, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.141038, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.002059, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.311738, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.260504, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 11.073529, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6555, "relative_activity": 10.573433, "balance": 11.073529, "dry_up": 3.551093, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049247, "annualized_volatility": 0.521258, "from_high_reference": -0.288256, "from_low_reference": 0.546392 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 495.157668, "fair_value_reference": 553.194423, "structural_low": 388.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.069048, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.065968, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.153846, "worst_return": -0.137119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.062963, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.150684, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.387879, "worst_return": -0.127865, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.185185, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.322079, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.747636, "worst_return": -0.196158, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.341246, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.275578, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.145455, "worst_return": -0.462963, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052192, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15734, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102219, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", 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1.543971, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.601394, "energy": 41.519969, "activity_lines": [ 367.333333, 368.745818, 361.811047, 355.762623 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 363.0, "volume": 905, "typical_volume": 231.05, "trend": 349.639333, "fair_value": 358.454353, "relative_strength": 3.814843, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.986003, "energy": 23.760247, "activity_lines": [ 365.266667, 367.224364, 362.626857, 356.679441 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 332.0, "volume": 105, "typical_volume": 236.3, "trend": 349.456, "fair_value": 358.146744, "relative_strength": -5.16373, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.583774, "energy": 20.528401, "activity_lines": [ 352.666667, 360.4, 360.368857, 355.541419 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 332.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 236.3, "trend": 349.272666, "fair_value": 357.846207, "relative_strength": -3.15787, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.686563, "energy": 41.288098, "activity_lines": [ 344.4, 354.472727, 358.137047, 354.415225 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-06", "close": 309.0, "volume": 203, "typical_volume": 246.45, "trend": 348.322666, "fair_value": 357.291136, "relative_strength": -7.155131, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -55.276702, "energy": 78.433189, "activity_lines": [ 330.533333, 345.290909, 353.740952, 351.816989 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-13", "close": 309.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 246.45, "trend": 347.372666, "fair_value": 356.748539, "relative_strength": -6.084047, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.153078, "energy": 82.112571, "activity_lines": [ 320.266667, 337.072727, 349.480571, 349.280043 ] }, { 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502.666667, 473.612728, 469.699049, 479.333786 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 515.0, "volume": 176, "typical_volume": 201.55, "trend": 501.267668, "fair_value": 550.356603, "relative_strength": -15.944734, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.800161, "energy": 49.40491, "activity_lines": [ 512.8, 484.930182, 473.255478, 479.883077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 562.700012, "volume": 1813, "typical_volume": 292.2, "trend": 497.591001, "fair_value": 551.655962, "relative_strength": -7.449935, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 52.366841, "energy": 76.058439, "activity_lines": [ 533.500004, 502.847639, 481.459526, 483.846454 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 600.0, "volume": 6555, "typical_volume": 619.95, "trend": 495.157668, "fair_value": 553.194423, "relative_strength": -0.20594, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 67.023521, "energy": 87.346647, "activity_lines": [ 558.120003, 524.679639, 493.093574, 490.453486 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }