{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "f1629655-b9aa-4236-a2be-c27c2d34bb9c",
    "symbol": "SAPR4",
    "name": "Companhia de Saneamento do Paran\u00e1 - SANEPAR",
    "exchange": "SAO",
    "country": "BR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^BVSP",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -78.983,
    "architecture_energy": 72.864,
    "architecture_maturity": 28.045,
    "architecture_confidence": 95.259,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 7.49,
        "rotation_up": 20.99,
        "upward_expansion": 15.6,
        "deceleration": 38.91,
        "rotation_down": 64.69,
        "downward_expansion": 91.27
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        7.0,
        7.102727,
        7.312571,
        7.550129
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 6.74,
    "trend_reference": 7.88,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.14467,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 5.932458,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.136123,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -13.53552,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.219907,
    "excess_performance": -0.162859,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.14467,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.008027,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.136123,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.318943,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.135355,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.085194,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.219907,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.537471,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 7400500,
      "relative_activity": 1.513749,
      "balance": 0.537471,
      "dry_up": 1.026631,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.054325,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.336113,
      "from_high_reference": -0.269772,
      "from_low_reference": 0.113726
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 7.88,
      "fair_value_reference": 5.932458,
      "structural_low": 6.7,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.002625,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.012208,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.044401,
        "worst_return": -0.067386,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.056457,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": 0.027122,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.098455,
        "worst_return": -0.010444,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.074903,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.16093,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.40071,
        "worst_return": -0.004164,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.230196,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.172756,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.716355,
        "worst_return": 0.039721,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2024-11-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.05516,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-11-08",
        "end": "2024-11-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.149905,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.146776,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.044401,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.040367,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.028933,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-09-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.124019,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-10-31",
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        "return": -0.05663,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.083788,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "return": -0.070345,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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      },
      {
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        "stage": 4,
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        "energy": 49.885055,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 4956640.0,
        "trend": 7.957667,
        "fair_value": 5.892218,
        "relative_strength": -10.460061,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "direction": -65.537756,
        "energy": 54.380755,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 7.11,
        "volume": 5835600,
        "typical_volume": 4812940.0,
        "trend": 7.934667,
        "fair_value": 5.91431,
        "relative_strength": -11.867369,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -62.765195,
        "energy": 52.417816,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 6.74,
        "volume": 7400500,
        "typical_volume": 4888855.0,
        "trend": 7.88,
        "fair_value": 5.932458,
        "relative_strength": -13.53552,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -78.982971,
        "energy": 72.864148,
        "activity_lines": [
          7.0,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}