{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f167e31c-b87a-4527-9073-04b292d09bf9", "symbol": "3011", "name": "Ji-Haw Industrial Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.486, "architecture_energy": 80.088, "architecture_maturity": 21.675, "architecture_confidence": 79.348, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.45, "rotation_up": 8.7, "upward_expansion": 17.74, "deceleration": 37.15, "rotation_down": 82.14, "downward_expansion": 95.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.2, 11.843636, 12.675952, 12.843871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 10.8, "trend_reference": 13.026667, "distance_from_trend": -0.170931, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.204487, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.513612, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.899132, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.166023, "excess_performance": -0.511755, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.170931, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031715, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.513612, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093019, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.428991, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086301, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166023, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.784349, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3298043, "relative_activity": 0.56695, "balance": 0.784349, "dry_up": 0.540279, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102208, "annualized_volatility": 0.373359, "from_high_reference": -0.384615, "from_low_reference": 0.058824 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.026667, "fair_value_reference": 22.204487, "structural_low": 10.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.003226, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.017303, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.235521, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.047652, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.113234, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.215753, "worst_return": -0.434992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.090576, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.219196, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.020548, "worst_return": -0.369527, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.462136, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065217, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105263, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2249, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119048, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.089147, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081784, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.093426, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004167, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068966, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 32.650002, "volume": 6352925, "typical_volume": 14176043.65, "trend": 26.685, "fair_value": 14.653782, "relative_strength": 40.199444, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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12.68, 13.344545, 13.429286, 13.375914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.6, "volume": 3603023, "typical_volume": 5883061.55, "trend": 13.358333, "fair_value": 22.616346, "relative_strength": -39.135375, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.870818, "energy": 62.752479, "activity_lines": [ 12.166667, 12.972727, 13.266429, 13.254624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.65, "volume": 2577406, "typical_volume": 5817265.95, "trend": 13.256667, "fair_value": 22.479167, "relative_strength": -39.282854, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.958039, "energy": 71.83236, "activity_lines": [ 11.86, 12.648182, 13.111667, 13.144409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 10.95, "volume": 3093106, "typical_volume": 5750264.85, "trend": 13.151667, "fair_value": 22.338462, "relative_strength": -43.927074, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.591948, "energy": 78.532785, "activity_lines": [ 11.483333, 12.224545, 12.897381, 12.995591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 10.8, "volume": 3298043, "typical_volume": 5817165.9, "trend": 13.026667, "fair_value": 22.204487, "relative_strength": -42.899132, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.486357, "energy": 80.08823, "activity_lines": [ 11.2, 11.843636, 12.675952, 12.843871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }