{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f16917cc-de32-493f-bee8-619cce479233", "symbol": "ECNL", "name": "Aquafil S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 49.81, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.634, "architecture_energy": 20.993, "architecture_maturity": 35.929, "architecture_confidence": 75.586, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.95, "rotation_up": 20.41, "upward_expansion": 6.06, "deceleration": 49.46, "rotation_down": 37.85, "downward_expansion": 65.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.379467, 1.379491, 1.3982, 1.402692 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.382, "trend_reference": 1.4076, "distance_from_trend": -0.018187, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.018285, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.31526, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.05881, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.005755, "excess_performance": -0.176647, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018187, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008174, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.31526, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017849, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.220588, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083133, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.005755, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.204871, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 674893, "relative_activity": 1.067869, "balance": 1.204871, "dry_up": 0.768302, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058778, "annualized_volatility": 0.292895, "from_high_reference": -0.354206, "from_low_reference": 0.142149 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.4076, "fair_value_reference": 2.018285, "structural_low": 1.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.008357, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": -0.038487, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.078125, "worst_return": -0.184466, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.103263, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.161758, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.174352, "worst_return": -0.249201, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.025, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.103789, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.530769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.143367, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.262882, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.008646, "worst_return": -0.5425, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-03-31", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.376367, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049419, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009023, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016923, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001623, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060703, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.569128, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040346, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.246377, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01831, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001437, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06412, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.109536, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.24, "volume": 61135, "typical_volume": 194497.6, "trend": 4.465502, "fair_value": 5.426092, "relative_strength": -40.044277, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": 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1.40446 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.382, "volume": 674893, "typical_volume": 631999.75, "trend": 1.4076, "fair_value": 2.018285, "relative_strength": -22.05881, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.633895, "energy": 20.99323, "activity_lines": [ 1.379467, 1.379491, 1.3982, 1.402692 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }