{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f171bb53-6569-485f-be29-6dbc40dce720", "symbol": "5TP", "name": "CNMC Goldmine Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.809, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -6.661, "architecture_energy": 13.839, "architecture_maturity": 56.717, "architecture_confidence": 72.817, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.15, "rotation_up": 35.85, "upward_expansion": 19.77, "deceleration": 43.59, "rotation_down": 17.04, "downward_expansion": 53.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.286, 1.241091, 1.248115, 1.293376 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.39, "trend_reference": 1.329412, "distance_from_trend": 0.045575, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.557959, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.491224, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.244551, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.120459, "excess_performance": -0.034376, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045575, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048479, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.491224, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.438629, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.002446, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.315796, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120459, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.795778, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21859500, "relative_activity": 1.440742, "balance": 0.795778, "dry_up": 0.960936, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084117, "annualized_volatility": 0.536219, "from_high_reference": -0.328782, "from_low_reference": 1.777645 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.329412, "fair_value_reference": 0.557959, "structural_low": 1.08, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.018259, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.016266, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.186866, "worst_return": -0.093749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.012826, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010602, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.136363, "worst_return": -0.080954, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.00442, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00679, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.131583, "worst_return": -0.05238, "sufficient": false }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.016321, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073173, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.080507, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122451, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 2.627724, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", 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"activity_lines": [ 1.185333, 1.197224, 1.267839, 1.303327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.16, "volume": 8318600, "typical_volume": 19259815.0, "trend": 1.301319, "fair_value": 0.536325, "relative_strength": -11.508168, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.601581, "energy": 42.750313, "activity_lines": [ 1.18, 1.185091, 1.248917, 1.294415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.28, "volume": 15154900, "typical_volume": 17006145.0, "trend": 1.308495, "fair_value": 0.543405, "relative_strength": -4.661615, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.609093, "energy": 23.533208, "activity_lines": [ 1.215333, 1.198727, 1.243947, 1.293039 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.24, "volume": 12985800, "typical_volume": 16182270.0, "trend": 1.31629, "fair_value": 0.550229, "relative_strength": -9.043504, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.416375, "energy": 19.7668, "activity_lines": [ 1.23, 1.205818, 1.237863, 1.28862 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.39, "volume": 21859500, "typical_volume": 15172395.0, "trend": 1.329412, "fair_value": 0.557959, "relative_strength": -0.244551, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.661031, "energy": 13.838794, "activity_lines": [ 1.286, 1.241091, 1.248115, 1.293376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }