{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f1731c38-61bd-4b00-bafe-7d0c58d60c03", "symbol": "PET", "name": "Pet Valu Holdings Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.057, "architecture_energy": 22.933, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.018, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.32, "rotation_up": 27.5, "upward_expansion": 19.6, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 28.52, "downward_expansion": 58.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.093333, 18.923636, 18.993436, 19.929864 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 18.879999, "trend_reference": 21.796709, "distance_from_trend": -0.133814, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.605758, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.290379, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.359657, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.34174, "excess_performance": -0.462162, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.133814, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122401, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.290379, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019483, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.373597, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033814, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.34174, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.635171, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 693700, "relative_activity": 0.703932, "balance": 0.635171, "dry_up": 0.868194, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063133, "annualized_volatility": 0.351758, "from_high_reference": -0.510455, "from_low_reference": 0.146706 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.796709, "fair_value_reference": 26.605758, "structural_low": 16.464552, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.019608, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.016536, "regime_survival": 0.904762, "best_return": 0.07874, "worst_return": -0.1981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.050689, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.100767, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.204265, "worst_return": -0.239929, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.139219, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.191109, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.099199, "worst_return": -0.352704, "sufficient": 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"typical_volume": 1055360.0, "trend": 22.344223, "fair_value": 26.701833, "relative_strength": -38.190391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.826239, "energy": 36.202838, "activity_lines": [ 18.867334, 18.715563, 19.057997, 20.31181 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.629999, "volume": 950200, "typical_volume": 1041490.0, "trend": 22.085927, "fair_value": 26.643309, "relative_strength": -33.887667, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.719939, "energy": 25.435864, "activity_lines": [ 19.154667, 18.905454, 19.054613, 20.136698 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.879999, "volume": 693700, "typical_volume": 985465.0, "trend": 21.796709, "fair_value": 26.605758, "relative_strength": -37.359657, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.057414, "energy": 22.93251, "activity_lines": [ 19.093333, 18.923636, 18.993436, 19.929864 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }