{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f1744225-2bfa-4b77-b487-74daf36418fa", "symbol": "SDIV", "name": "Global X SuperDividend UCITS ETF USD Dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.746, "architecture_energy": 23.394, "architecture_maturity": 26.727, "architecture_confidence": 36.639, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.41, "rotation_up": 55.14, "upward_expansion": 58.12, "deceleration": 57.68, "rotation_down": 11.31, "downward_expansion": 18.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.773599, 8.734054, 8.739584, 8.74109 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 8.729, "trend_reference": 8.728952, "distance_from_trend": 6e-06, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.386251, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.18179, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.703723, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.002462, "excess_performance": -0.16843, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 6e-06, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024044, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.18179, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060525, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107037, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085296, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002462, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.26373, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 247687, "relative_activity": 0.719566, "balance": 0.26373, "dry_up": 0.774078, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017008, "annualized_volatility": 0.102917, "from_high_reference": -0.03357, "from_low_reference": 0.160293 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.728952, "fair_value_reference": 7.386251, "structural_low": 8.265409, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.013834, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.017423, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.048456, "worst_return": -0.137773, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.016022, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.004888, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.090676, "worst_return": 0.005199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.070607, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.032917, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.105388, "worst_return": 0.021304, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 8.856, "volume": 308760, "typical_volume": 360482.8, "trend": 8.696353, "fair_value": 7.356568, "relative_strength": -6.434019, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.263221, "energy": 26.162548, "activity_lines": [ 8.771646, 8.720985, 8.740885, 8.737191 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.745, "volume": 245532, "typical_volume": 355023.4, "trend": 8.717215, "fair_value": 7.371292, "relative_strength": -8.085346, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.583033, "energy": 27.500425, "activity_lines": [ 8.778359, 8.72917, 8.740936, 8.74033 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.729, "volume": 247687, "typical_volume": 344217.15, "trend": 8.728952, "fair_value": 7.386251, "relative_strength": -10.703723, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.746345, "energy": 23.394021, "activity_lines": [ 8.773599, 8.734054, 8.739584, 8.74109 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }