{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f17a7ded-0b01-4c6a-a40c-2450b72ca0eb", "symbol": "WEAT", "name": "TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST WHEAT FD NEW (REV SPT)", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.62, "architecture_energy": 59.703, "architecture_maturity": 7.725, "architecture_confidence": 75.358, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.89, "rotation_up": 64.38, "upward_expansion": 83.61, "deceleration": 48.41, "rotation_down": 12.79, "downward_expansion": 14.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.311333, 23.831455, 23.556667, 23.330387 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.91, "trend_reference": 22.846333, "distance_from_trend": 0.046557, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.773526, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.034857, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.871494, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.155072, "excess_performance": 0.029448, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046557, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043021, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.034857, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048919, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.028715, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016872, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.155072, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.608458, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2122330, "relative_activity": 0.593355, "balance": 1.608458, "dry_up": 0.751576, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054623, "annualized_volatility": 0.246205, "from_high_reference": -0.083206, "from_low_reference": 0.208797 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.846333, "fair_value_reference": 24.773526, "structural_low": 20.52, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.012754, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.034006, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.111324, "worst_return": -0.177893, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.04265, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.069104, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.067204, "worst_return": -0.22191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.179661, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.147006, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.03629, "worst_return": -0.232687, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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22.804194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.25, "volume": 2461363, "typical_volume": 4151830.45, "trend": 22.441, "fair_value": 24.945064, "relative_strength": 6.223629, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.025324, "energy": 42.716996, "activity_lines": [ 23.709333, 23.313818, 23.255, 22.996753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.22, "volume": 3312322, "typical_volume": 4070701.9, "trend": 22.600333, "fair_value": 24.882692, "relative_strength": 6.804289, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.535035, "energy": 62.498739, "activity_lines": [ 24.35, 23.660182, 23.447619, 23.176043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.81, "volume": 2857034, "typical_volume": 3758889.5, "trend": 22.727333, "fair_value": 24.826667, "relative_strength": -0.074388, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.065814, "energy": 58.60561, "activity_lines": [ 24.368667, 23.73, 23.498286, 23.254086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.91, "volume": 2122330, "typical_volume": 3576832.45, "trend": 22.846333, "fair_value": 24.773526, "relative_strength": -2.871494, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.620433, "energy": 59.70274, "activity_lines": [ 24.311333, 23.831455, 23.556667, 23.330387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }