{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f17bc18c-6d14-445b-8137-54ce7cb5c15d", "symbol": "AMR", "name": "AMR Asia Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.926, "architecture_energy": 17.968, "architecture_maturity": 31.617, "architecture_confidence": 77.649, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.12, "rotation_up": 26.55, "upward_expansion": 54.33, "deceleration": 86.68, "rotation_down": 27.69, "downward_expansion": 20.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.390667, 0.394909, 0.383762, 0.375054 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.4, "trend_reference": 0.371667, "distance_from_trend": 0.076233, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.897372, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.554254, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.472057, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.052632, "excess_performance": -0.139693, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076233, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030435, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.554254, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132252, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.184721, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.191838, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.052632, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.536338, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 335600, "relative_activity": 0.181988, "balance": 5.536338, "dry_up": 0.284193, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090385, "annualized_volatility": 0.454846, "from_high_reference": -0.354839, "from_low_reference": 0.428571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.371667, "fair_value_reference": 0.897372, "structural_low": 0.28, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-02-10", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.536778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.304348, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.15942, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.13913, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.43, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107143, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.163265, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.081081, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.99, "volume": 2339400, "typical_volume": 931245.0, "trend": 3.16552, "fair_value": 4.670289, "relative_strength": -41.773372, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -95.248041, "energy": 95.20559, "activity_lines": [ 2.212667, 2.312364, 2.597015, 2.85024 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 2.0, "volume": 1599400, "typical_volume": 873095.0, "trend": 3.101471, "fair_value": 4.645564, "relative_strength": -42.354453, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.170957, "energy": 93.615364, "activity_lines": [ 2.122667, 2.235091, 2.51319, 2.775045 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 2.42, "volume": 24706800, "typical_volume": 2092380.0, "trend": 3.052078, "fair_value": 4.625146, "relative_strength": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.39, "volume": 1273500, "typical_volume": 2028710.0, "trend": 0.375, "fair_value": 0.934615, "relative_strength": -24.627487, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.292417, "energy": 15.905082, "activity_lines": [ 0.397333, 0.398909, 0.375524, 0.371892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.4, "volume": 281600, "typical_volume": 1955065.0, "trend": 0.374, "fair_value": 0.922051, "relative_strength": -21.961803, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.413666, "energy": 12.703094, "activity_lines": [ 0.396667, 0.400182, 0.379381, 0.373505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.37, "volume": 205600, "typical_volume": 1917600.0, "trend": 0.372, "fair_value": 0.909423, "relative_strength": -26.01609, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.920046, "energy": 16.050588, "activity_lines": [ 0.387333, 0.394909, 0.38019, 0.373247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.4, "volume": 335600, "typical_volume": 1844080.0, "trend": 0.371667, "fair_value": 0.897372, "relative_strength": -18.472057, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.926181, "energy": 17.968158, "activity_lines": [ 0.390667, 0.394909, 0.383762, 0.375054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }