{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f17c3cf9-bad2-4078-9e1e-492d74312155", "symbol": "600549", "name": "Xiamen Tungsten Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.35, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.838, "architecture_energy": 34.314, "architecture_maturity": 46.038, "architecture_confidence": 48.614, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.73, "rotation_up": 14.12, "upward_expansion": 16.24, "deceleration": 70.87, "rotation_down": 64.84, "downward_expansion": 41.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.627332, 59.850594, 60.804065, 60.735851 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 58.029999, "trend_reference": 60.122957, "distance_from_trend": -0.034811, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.207455, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.057258, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 21.559092, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.026172, "excess_performance": 0.069375, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034811, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.178361, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.057258, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.317584, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.215591, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212076, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.026172, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.829809, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 487791232, "relative_activity": 1.750786, "balance": 0.829809, "dry_up": 1.177392, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.181224, "annualized_volatility": 0.849536, "from_high_reference": -0.352922, "from_low_reference": 1.600329 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 60.122957, "fair_value_reference": 28.207455, "structural_low": 43.040001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.031108, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.037668, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.223455, "worst_return": -0.24501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.077985, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.033973, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.086586, "worst_return": -0.211526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.063665, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.10119, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.088321, "worst_return": -0.384739, "sufficient": 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"typical_volume": 283024414.45, "trend": 59.078624, "fair_value": 27.570855, "relative_strength": 16.13787, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.004596, "energy": 14.827102, "activity_lines": [ 65.987334, 66.875622, 63.665428, 62.318058 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.389999, "volume": 306472968, "typical_volume": 272448681.1, "trend": 59.358291, "fair_value": 27.763568, "relative_strength": 7.046397, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.19689, "energy": 27.437334, "activity_lines": [ 58.112, 63.945986, 62.342481, 61.62847 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.049999, "volume": 258142429, "typical_volume": 267735649.45, "trend": 59.557291, "fair_value": 27.948242, "relative_strength": 2.69746, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.776171, "energy": 40.740005, "activity_lines": [ 52.291333, 60.857713, 61.013868, 60.834386 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.029999, "volume": 487791232, "typical_volume": 278612697.95, "trend": 60.122957, "fair_value": 28.207455, "relative_strength": 21.559092, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.838134, "energy": 34.314406, "activity_lines": [ 52.627332, 59.850594, 60.804065, 60.735851 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }