{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f1829bbe-73c9-4456-8425-73893699823b", "symbol": "002366", "name": "RongFa Nuclear Equipment Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.371, "architecture_energy": 45.173, "architecture_maturity": 86.386, "architecture_confidence": 57.792, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.48, "rotation_up": 25.84, "upward_expansion": 18.55, "deceleration": 66.98, "rotation_down": 45.55, "downward_expansion": 68.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.646, 5.607636, 6.07481, 6.478989 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.18, "trend_reference": 7.004, "distance_from_trend": -0.117647, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.789872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.067381, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.871978, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.172691, "excess_performance": -0.180091, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.117647, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083206, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.067381, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.237142, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.18872, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011901, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.172691, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.678481, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 780595934, "relative_activity": 3.373529, "balance": 1.678481, "dry_up": 1.762855, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095594, "annualized_volatility": 0.452084, "from_high_reference": -0.357588, "from_low_reference": 0.274227 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.004, "fair_value_reference": 5.789872, "structural_low": 4.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.002673, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011594, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.396011, "worst_return": -0.221095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.025701, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.064861, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.868339, "worst_return": -0.258941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.340139, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.336586, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.623494, "worst_return": -0.217636, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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7.275333, "fair_value": 5.811218, "relative_strength": -37.677553, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.908041, "energy": 92.767982, "activity_lines": [ 5.582, 5.982364, 6.555714, 6.898559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.01, "volume": 164814327, "typical_volume": 267669505.65, "trend": 7.182667, "fair_value": 5.801154, "relative_strength": -33.832691, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.955109, "energy": 92.357204, "activity_lines": [ 5.356, 5.731455, 6.365095, 6.752409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.18, "volume": 243711290, "typical_volume": 253739561.8, "trend": 7.107, "fair_value": 5.793718, "relative_strength": -30.927054, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.449653, "energy": 73.726466, "activity_lines": [ 5.252, 5.558, 6.204619, 6.623204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.74, "volume": 442496678, "typical_volume": 227870212.8, "trend": 7.048333, "fair_value": 5.789423, "relative_strength": -21.499982, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.521056, "energy": 64.796223, "activity_lines": [ 5.386, 5.530364, 6.111286, 6.535011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.18, "volume": 780595934, "typical_volume": 231388546.55, "trend": 7.004, "fair_value": 5.789872, "relative_strength": -18.871978, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.371019, "energy": 45.172708, "activity_lines": [ 5.646, 5.607636, 6.07481, 6.478989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }