{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f182a939-3aed-4d73-948b-de6aa3c33434", "symbol": "TMMA", "name": "Grupo TMM, S.A.B.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.666, "architecture_energy": 35.367, "architecture_maturity": 48.0, "architecture_confidence": 56.614, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.92, "rotation_up": 20.05, "upward_expansion": 53.85, "deceleration": 65.38, "rotation_down": 25.22, "downward_expansion": 40.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.0, 10.000545, 10.361857, 9.968645 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 10.0, "trend_reference": 9.123333, "distance_from_trend": 0.096091, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.235513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.910033, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 28.766969, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.639344, "excess_performance": 0.694011, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096091, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.1828, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.910033, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.004372, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.28767, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.511128, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.639344, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.273106, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029, "annualized_volatility": 0.560642, "from_high_reference": -0.333333, "from_low_reference": 0.904762 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.123333, "fair_value_reference": 5.235513, "structural_low": 6.1, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.027848, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.020061, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.1, "worst_return": -0.057813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.238696, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.217255, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.436111, "worst_return": -0.065625, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.463889, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.483659, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.565217, "worst_return": 0.13852, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.714912, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.615147, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.291304, "worst_return": 0.13852, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.231527, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.252372, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057813, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033613, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.046823, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001754, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006711, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106557, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097222, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.252326, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.158824, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000999, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.3, "volume": 44311, "typical_volume": 14290.6, "trend": 2.064, "fair_value": 2.950641, "relative_strength": -42.824313, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.619104, "energy": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 10.0, "volume": 13462, "typical_volume": 20887.8, "trend": 8.575667, "fair_value": 5.017115, "relative_strength": 33.605261, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.535634, "energy": 17.286586, "activity_lines": [ 10.000667, 10.152182, 10.396476, 9.654946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.0, "volume": 8852, "typical_volume": 19937.6, "trend": 8.719333, "fair_value": 5.071282, "relative_strength": 32.357798, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.466038, "energy": 16.642543, "activity_lines": [ 10.0, 10.051273, 10.410143, 9.746839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.0, "volume": 123, "typical_volume": 19673.45, "trend": 8.854, "fair_value": 5.126026, "relative_strength": 31.810969, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.377015, "energy": 37.577391, "activity_lines": [ 10.0, 10.008909, 10.40881, 9.829462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.0, "volume": 11883, "typical_volume": 19669.0, "trend": 8.988667, "fair_value": 5.180577, "relative_strength": 29.761006, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.653896, "energy": 38.913133, "activity_lines": [ 10.0, 10.001091, 10.392, 9.903398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 19093.3, "trend": 9.123333, "fair_value": 5.235513, "relative_strength": 28.766969, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.666359, "energy": 35.367133, "activity_lines": [ 10.0, 10.000545, 10.361857, 9.968645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }