{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f1850788-01f5-481c-be94-02d967e6859d", "symbol": "CRPG3", "name": "Tronox Pigmentos do Brasil S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 51.252, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.882, "architecture_energy": 73.214, "architecture_maturity": 8.489, "architecture_confidence": 83.498, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.59, "rotation_up": 9.67, "upward_expansion": 15.74, "deceleration": 37.22, "rotation_down": 67.68, "downward_expansion": 84.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.4, 17.654545, 17.713571, 17.901785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.0, "trend_reference": 18.010667, "distance_from_trend": -0.056115, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.562083, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.35999, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.666277, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.007009, "excess_performance": 0.050039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056115, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005467, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.35999, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011219, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066663, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081702, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007009, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.142857, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.142857, "dry_up": 1.818182, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025792, "annualized_volatility": 0.32848, "from_high_reference": -0.133537, "from_low_reference": 0.133333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.010667, "fair_value_reference": 26.562083, "structural_low": 16.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.361111, "median_excess_return": -0.034913, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.307333, "worst_return": -0.21568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.058977, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.136969, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.141333, "worst_return": -0.37426, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.146911, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.117037, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.464579, "worst_return": -0.456653, "sufficient": true }, { 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"trend": 17.976334, "fair_value": 28.582308, "relative_strength": -10.833795, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.506394, "energy": 19.408844, "activity_lines": [ 17.982, 18.028727, 18.271429, 18.19557 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 16.0, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 145.0, "trend": 18.009667, "fair_value": 28.365772, "relative_strength": -19.870052, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -55.451054, "energy": 51.996299, "activity_lines": [ 17.360667, 17.607455, 18.06981, 18.068065 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 18.0, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 150.0, "trend": 18.109667, "fair_value": 28.162057, "relative_strength": -7.762706, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.570612, "energy": 41.905391, "activity_lines": [ 17.506667, 17.615455, 18.063476, 18.067441 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 18.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 150.0, "trend": 18.209667, "fair_value": 27.987292, "relative_strength": -4.316699, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.023707, "energy": 38.692551, "activity_lines": [ 17.62, 17.652727, 18.052429, 18.060366 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 18.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 145.0, "trend": 18.156334, "fair_value": 27.784806, "relative_strength": -4.650073, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.750355, "energy": 32.026885, "activity_lines": [ 17.74, 17.719273, 18.036667, 18.046839 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 18.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 145.0, "trend": 18.102667, "fair_value": 27.645893, "relative_strength": -2.6307, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.821278, "energy": 22.79153, "activity_lines": [ 17.866667, 17.776909, 18.016714, 18.036753 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 18.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 145.0, "trend": 18.049, "fair_value": 27.506981, "relative_strength": -4.759405, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.719849, "energy": 20.873478, "activity_lines": [ 18.0, 17.825636, 17.992572, 18.030129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 18.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 140.0, "trend": 17.995334, "fair_value": 27.368069, "relative_strength": -4.829053, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.317583, "energy": 12.739752, "activity_lines": [ 18.0, 17.865455, 17.964238, 18.026968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 110.0, "trend": 17.944667, "fair_value": 27.229093, "relative_strength": -6.179401, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.322583, "energy": 9.36977, "activity_lines": [ 18.0, 17.896364, 17.936905, 18.027269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 35.0, "trend": 17.978, "fair_value": 27.067929, "relative_strength": -3.39993, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.231278, "energy": 9.559511, "activity_lines": [ 18.0, 17.929091, 17.916, 18.030839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 35.0, "trend": 18.011334, "fair_value": 26.906766, "relative_strength": -3.348325, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.119359, "energy": 7.400399, "activity_lines": [ 18.0, 17.963636, 17.902762, 18.032258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.0, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 55.0, "trend": 18.011, "fair_value": 26.739192, "relative_strength": -10.096678, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.481464, "energy": 50.222177, "activity_lines": [ 17.666667, 17.818182, 17.801952, 17.967011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 55.0, "trend": 18.010667, "fair_value": 26.562083, "relative_strength": -6.666277, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.881731, "energy": 73.21388, "activity_lines": [ 17.4, 17.654545, 17.713571, 17.901785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }