{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f185fbe8-8613-4e12-a55f-17b8fddd344e", "symbol": "SGO", "name": "Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 69.486, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 47.505, "architecture_energy": 41.879, "architecture_maturity": 23.579, "architecture_confidence": 44.874, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.16, "rotation_up": 56.11, "upward_expansion": 51.21, "deceleration": 32.55, "rotation_down": 29.49, "downward_expansion": 21.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 80.204001, 79.145819, 77.65212, 77.24363 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 85.480003, "trend_reference": 78.082409, "distance_from_trend": 0.094741, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 78.80672, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.084679, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.58204, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.021072, "excess_performance": -0.195319, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094741, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026805, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.084679, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078427, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.16582, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097364, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021072, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.806813, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 275, "relative_activity": 0.691824, "balance": 0.806813, "dry_up": 1.169182, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044864, "annualized_volatility": 0.349017, "from_high_reference": -0.147332, "from_low_reference": 0.291239 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 78.082409, "fair_value_reference": 78.80672, "structural_low": 66.199997, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.018363, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.003478, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.064261, "worst_return": -0.198751, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.004272, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.034687, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.205087, "worst_return": -0.189045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.126634, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.125357, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.283519, "worst_return": -0.084477, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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-25.311881, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.073495, "energy": 13.432265, "activity_lines": [ 77.484001, 77.202392, 76.1382, 76.843451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 74.120003, "volume": 668, "typical_volume": 379.6, "trend": 78.247076, "fair_value": 78.481478, "relative_strength": -26.919981, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.812702, "energy": 21.781118, "activity_lines": [ 76.120002, 76.777767, 76.06119, 76.551253 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 81.559998, "volume": 558, "typical_volume": 389.85, "trend": 78.061076, "fair_value": 78.630252, "relative_strength": -18.788343, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.879698, "energy": 6.51495, "activity_lines": [ 77.542667, 77.680237, 76.693131, 76.76499 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 85.480003, "volume": 275, "typical_volume": 397.5, "trend": 78.082409, "fair_value": 78.80672, "relative_strength": -16.58204, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.505194, "energy": 41.879043, "activity_lines": [ 80.204001, 79.145819, 77.65212, 77.24363 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }