{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "f187c00c-f49c-4687-9955-4f40f80aa148",
    "symbol": "PQVG",
    "name": "Invesco S&P 500 QVM UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 61.552,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 21.153,
    "architecture_energy": 24.397,
    "architecture_maturity": 60.977,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.506,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 47.71,
        "rotation_up": 17.17,
        "upward_expansion": 52.65,
        "deceleration": 94.0,
        "rotation_down": 41.97,
        "downward_expansion": 23.31
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        5793.132706,
        5695.36282
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 5689.5,
    "trend_reference": 5552.264838,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.024717,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 4678.27666,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.216153,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -1.972105,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.067478,
    "excess_performance": 0.016243,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.024717,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.05148,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.216153,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.033061,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.019721,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.054351,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.067478,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.658609,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 8047,
      "relative_activity": 1.820465,
      "balance": 0.658609,
      "dry_up": 1.36993,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.031584,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.123244,
      "from_high_reference": -0.149981,
      "from_low_reference": 0.171725
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 5552.264838,
      "fair_value_reference": 4678.27666,
      "structural_low": 5128.0,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.032676,
        "positive_rate": 0.692308,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.692308,
        "median_excess_return": 0.009569,
        "regime_survival": 0.230769,
        "best_return": 0.06114,
        "worst_return": -0.077321,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.051581,
        "positive_rate": 0.625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
        "median_excess_return": 0.04444,
        "regime_survival": 0.125,
        "best_return": 0.12056,
        "worst_return": -0.091066,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.118341,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.077658,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.184856,
        "worst_return": -0.071374,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.107139,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.03188,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.316857,
        "worst_return": -0.061524,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.025436,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.036477,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.082617,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.011254,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.004674,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.055345,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.019598,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2025-08-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.023032,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-09-05",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.029045,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.043792,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.014843,
        "active": false
      },
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "fair_value": 4650.514488,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 5648.0,
        "volume": 7588,
        "typical_volume": 4159.75,
        "trend": 5533.110069,
        "fair_value": 4664.286592,
        "relative_strength": -2.443926,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 24.443415,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 5689.5,
        "volume": 8047,
        "typical_volume": 4420.3,
        "trend": 5552.264838,
        "fair_value": 4678.27666,
        "relative_strength": -1.972105,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}