{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f1908a46-d414-474c-b37a-29853b386ab5", "symbol": "9938", "name": "Taiwan Paiho Limited", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.253, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -13.884, "architecture_energy": 8.49, "architecture_maturity": 19.231, "architecture_confidence": 56.975, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.58, "rotation_up": 26.33, "upward_expansion": 31.46, "deceleration": 42.74, "rotation_down": 26.18, "downward_expansion": 42.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.572963, 42.551581, 42.144445, 42.573939 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 42.400002, "trend_reference": 43.710305, "distance_from_trend": -0.029977, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.778114, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.181121, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.878658, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.125915, "excess_performance": -0.567287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029977, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054353, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.181121, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032869, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.368787, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069173, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.125915, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.541388, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5761868, "relative_activity": 0.673719, "balance": 0.541388, "dry_up": 1.080654, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042816, "annualized_volatility": 0.193247, "from_high_reference": -0.262357, "from_low_reference": 0.078836 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.710305, "fair_value_reference": 51.778114, "structural_low": 39.301634, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.001862, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.041417, "regime_survival": 0.411765, "best_return": 0.12812, "worst_return": -0.198786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.041667, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.086711, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.126095, "worst_return": -0.18421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.068287, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.141908, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 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"tenure": "New", "return": 0.074453, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072022, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.170323, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052142, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038261, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057692, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": 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42.906935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.619606, "volume": 10410031, "typical_volume": 8418267.6, "trend": 44.088552, "fair_value": 51.847229, "relative_strength": -34.429611, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.594908, "energy": 15.654874, "activity_lines": [ 43.052658, 42.565229, 42.123581, 42.801512 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.099998, "volume": 9463164, "typical_volume": 8554296.5, "trend": 43.938824, "fair_value": 51.81158, "relative_strength": -36.000347, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.474439, "energy": 11.397794, "activity_lines": [ 42.736143, 42.548925, 42.113706, 42.673218 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 42.400002, "volume": 5761868, "typical_volume": 8552328.45, "trend": 43.710305, "fair_value": 51.778114, "relative_strength": -36.878658, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.883619, "energy": 8.489693, "activity_lines": [ 42.572963, 42.551581, 42.144445, 42.573939 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }