{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f1980052-a548-445d-937a-ebdc574ca65d", "symbol": "ORP2", "name": "emeis Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 anonyme", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.395, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.728, "architecture_energy": 14.439, "architecture_maturity": 13.053, "architecture_confidence": 58.778, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.28, "rotation_up": 38.51, "upward_expansion": 61.16, "deceleration": 76.18, "rotation_down": 26.73, "downward_expansion": 18.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.414, 14.374727, 14.413286, 14.326731 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 14.64, "trend_reference": 14.235333, "distance_from_trend": 0.028427, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.811331, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.358214, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.598582, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.033169, "excess_performance": -0.141078, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028427, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018143, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.358214, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.16216, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145986, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127089, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.033169, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.681163, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5350, "relative_activity": 0.75004, "balance": 0.681163, "dry_up": 0.398678, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049023, "annualized_volatility": 0.335061, "from_high_reference": -0.081556, "from_low_reference": 0.363128 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.235333, "fair_value_reference": 22.811331, "structural_low": 12.02, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.026, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.049465, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.109422, "worst_return": -0.061589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.069149, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.185129, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.071429, "worst_return": -0.459953, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.275229, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.388161, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.076748, "worst_return": -0.627205, 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.67459, "energy": 7.35366, "activity_lines": [ 14.366667, 14.435091, 14.357476, 14.293312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.14, "volume": 2863, "typical_volume": 9727.6, "trend": 14.231667, "fair_value": 24.575579, "relative_strength": -14.819581, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.33575, "energy": 8.888563, "activity_lines": [ 14.291333, 14.356, 14.347095, 14.289269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.77, "volume": 610, "typical_volume": 8039.2, "trend": 14.223667, "fair_value": 23.967052, "relative_strength": -18.000532, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.526343, "energy": 17.94407, "activity_lines": [ 14.094667, 14.228727, 14.307429, 14.259484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.86, "volume": 2552, "typical_volume": 7557.4, "trend": 14.234, "fair_value": 23.389128, "relative_strength": -11.059023, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.929646, "energy": 15.636466, "activity_lines": [ 14.303333, 14.323818, 14.372714, 14.300538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.64, "volume": 5350, "typical_volume": 7132.95, "trend": 14.235333, "fair_value": 22.811331, "relative_strength": -14.598582, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.72762, "energy": 14.439251, "activity_lines": [ 14.414, 14.374727, 14.413286, 14.326731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }