{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f19914a5-cf23-43e7-891d-1c36f242b4b2", "symbol": "1MZ", "name": "Nam Cheong Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.984, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.881, "architecture_energy": 49.12, "architecture_maturity": 35.315, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.42, "rotation_up": 25.32, "upward_expansion": 7.58, "deceleration": 57.89, "rotation_down": 54.44, "downward_expansion": 83.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.123333, 1.130182, 1.217048, 1.270946 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.09, "trend_reference": 1.297667, "distance_from_trend": -0.160031, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.664402, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.640574, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.182766, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.128, "excess_performance": -0.282835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.160031, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076753, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.640574, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.814869, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.141828, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.653219, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.128, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.33436, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3696900, "relative_activity": 0.525362, "balance": 0.33436, "dry_up": 0.846485, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097389, "annualized_volatility": 0.468407, "from_high_reference": -0.339394, "from_low_reference": 0.816667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.297667, "fair_value_reference": 0.664402, "structural_low": 1.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014815, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.169014, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.62069, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018182, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-02-02", "close": 0.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-02-09", "close": 0.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-02-16", "close": 0.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.676104, "energy": 69.898088, "activity_lines": [ 1.171333, 1.253273, 1.348571, 1.329527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.13, "volume": 1343300, "typical_volume": 9149265.0, "trend": 1.263333, "fair_value": 0.646307, "relative_strength": -1.103919, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.995375, "energy": 66.772433, "activity_lines": [ 1.147333, 1.216909, 1.324762, 1.321581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.11, "volume": 7082500, "typical_volume": 9296575.0, "trend": 1.272167, "fair_value": 0.64993, "relative_strength": -7.459435, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.954772, "energy": 70.029081, "activity_lines": [ 1.13, 1.184364, 1.299714, 1.311688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.09, "volume": 7249400, "typical_volume": 8595320.0, "trend": 1.2805, "fair_value": 0.653341, "relative_strength": -10.28438, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.640979, "energy": 73.263757, "activity_lines": [ 1.112667, 1.155818, 1.273667, 1.299935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.21, "volume": 8460300, "typical_volume": 8052380.0, "trend": 1.292167, "fair_value": 0.657623, "relative_strength": -2.229146, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.79165, "energy": 47.358281, "activity_lines": [ 1.14, 1.156364, 1.260476, 1.295387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.12, "volume": 4419800, "typical_volume": 7623775.0, "trend": 1.296667, "fair_value": 0.661153, "relative_strength": -10.477508, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.116434, "energy": 49.561316, "activity_lines": [ 1.137333, 1.144182, 1.239667, 1.28428 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.09, "volume": 3696900, "typical_volume": 7036865.0, "trend": 1.297667, "fair_value": 0.664402, "relative_strength": -14.182766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.881285, "energy": 49.120377, "activity_lines": [ 1.123333, 1.130182, 1.217048, 1.270946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }