{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "f19ce9ae-617d-4dae-9559-b92ce3414d6b",
    "symbol": "XS7W",
    "name": "Xtrackers Portfolio Income UCITS ETF 1D",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 55.736,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 48.95,
    "architecture_energy": 27.258,
    "architecture_maturity": 40.13,
    "architecture_confidence": 82.063,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 33.82,
        "rotation_up": 34.25,
        "upward_expansion": 62.16,
        "deceleration": 87.63,
        "rotation_down": 25.61,
        "downward_expansion": 14.49
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        13.912533,
        13.928436,
        13.84981,
        13.735376
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 14.034,
    "trend_reference": 13.612933,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.030931,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 12.703588,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.104727,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -3.431748,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.042335,
    "excess_performance": -0.022305,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.030931,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.015891,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.104727,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.008666,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.034317,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.061838,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.042335,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.815622,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 42857,
      "relative_activity": 3.777561,
      "balance": 1.815622,
      "dry_up": 1.292557,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.0188,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.057484,
      "from_high_reference": -0.01308,
      "from_low_reference": 0.103649
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 13.612933,
      "fair_value_reference": 12.703588,
      "structural_low": 12.716,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.010494,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.022152,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.017544,
        "worst_return": 0.002498,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.016928,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011279,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.024487,
        "worst_return": -0.028167,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.004763,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.022007,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.047619,
        "worst_return": -0.031198,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.031658,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.068351,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.043866,
        "worst_return": -0.107183,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-08-30",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.026463,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.017786,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.018429,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.017651,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.007964,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.019243,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.006068,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.005265,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.029108,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-03-20",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
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        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "direction": 12.88357,
        "energy": 9.715409,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.2928,
          13.290618,
          13.338057,
          13.331278
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "close": 13.558,
        "volume": 7796,
        "typical_volume": 19025.75,
        "trend": 13.319323,
        "fair_value": 12.467031,
        "relative_strength": 2.691066,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.195027,
        "energy": 29.055049,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.403733,
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          13.357943,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 13.538,
        "volume": 2038,
        "typical_volume": 18185.1,
        "trend": 13.33059,
        "fair_value": 12.481586,
        "relative_strength": 1.819411,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.282938,
        "energy": 34.443,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.478267,
          13.368582,
          13.374924,
          13.361744
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 13.698,
        "volume": 9595,
        "typical_volume": 17898.95,
        "trend": 13.350057,
        "fair_value": 12.497482,
        "relative_strength": 2.752015,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.526345,
        "energy": 55.342519,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.5696,
          13.433855,
          13.405838,
          13.385448
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 13.636,
        "volume": 12339,
        "typical_volume": 17988.95,
        "trend": 13.36639,
        "fair_value": 12.512532,
        "relative_strength": 3.841171,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.656349,
        "energy": 60.837344,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.609733,
          13.484618,
          13.428886,
          13.403896
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 13.742,
        "volume": 13774,
        "typical_volume": 18191.5,
        "trend": 13.380733,
        "fair_value": 12.528042,
        "relative_strength": 0.659088,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.320541,
        "energy": 63.867319,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.665467,
          13.549709,
          13.460219,
          13.428129
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 13.856,
        "volume": 23410,
        "typical_volume": 18229.1,
        "trend": 13.4,
        "fair_value": 12.543688,
        "relative_strength": 0.553479,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.668547,
        "energy": 57.323746,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.739333,
          13.6272,
          13.50041,
          13.458791
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 13.844,
        "volume": 3994,
        "typical_volume": 17679.45,
        "trend": 13.4212,
        "fair_value": 12.559111,
        "relative_strength": 1.757312,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.721224,
        "energy": 53.20193,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.789333,
          13.688982,
          13.537467,
          13.487437
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 13.89,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 17016.05,
        "trend": 13.442333,
        "fair_value": 12.574526,
        "relative_strength": 2.536987,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.560905,
        "energy": 58.438391,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.834267,
          13.7436,
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          13.517682
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 14.014,
        "volume": 3534,
        "typical_volume": 15518.95,
        "trend": 13.4696,
        "fair_value": 12.591549,
        "relative_strength": 1.947088,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.61591,
        "energy": 66.315649,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.907733,
          13.808945,
          13.626362,
          13.554563
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 14.0,
        "volume": 2702,
        "typical_volume": 14695.65,
        "trend": 13.492,
        "fair_value": 12.607948,
        "relative_strength": 3.020944,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.705578,
        "energy": 69.495325,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.951333,
          13.859491,
          13.671505,
          13.588783
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 14.016,
        "volume": 383,
        "typical_volume": 13741.95,
        "trend": 13.514267,
        "fair_value": 12.625154,
        "relative_strength": -1.30971,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.343586,
        "energy": 71.513594,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.983067,
          13.902836,
          13.715619,
          13.622589
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 13.948,
        "volume": 11407,
        "typical_volume": 13236.7,
        "trend": 13.537067,
        "fair_value": 12.641414,
        "relative_strength": 0.907514,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.981656,
        "energy": 63.991032,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.981467,
          13.925491,
          13.750543,
          13.650572
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 13.878,
        "volume": 8274,
        "typical_volume": 13560.8,
        "trend": 13.5568,
        "fair_value": 12.656995,
        "relative_strength": 1.252869,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 58.737012,
        "energy": 43.108513,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.9496,
          13.927964,
          13.776857,
          13.672568
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 13.85,
        "volume": 633,
        "typical_volume": 11750.65,
        "trend": 13.5766,
        "fair_value": 12.671764,
        "relative_strength": -0.097294,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 44.829989,
        "energy": 31.81962,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.9092,
          13.922073,
          13.7988,
          13.691484
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 13.816,
        "volume": 6893,
        "typical_volume": 9554.35,
        "trend": 13.593067,
        "fair_value": 12.686862,
        "relative_strength": -2.37498,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.050066,
        "energy": 23.276714,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.8684,
          13.906109,
          13.81519,
          13.706929
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 14.034,
        "volume": 42857,
        "typical_volume": 11345.15,
        "trend": 13.612933,
        "fair_value": 12.703588,
        "relative_strength": -3.431748,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.950015,
        "energy": 27.258281,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.912533,
          13.928436,
          13.84981,
          13.735376
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}