{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f1a15021-04d4-4aee-890b-faea4dac3523", "symbol": "LM8", "name": "Lunnon Metals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.695, "architecture_energy": 56.931, "architecture_maturity": 34.008, "architecture_confidence": 91.764, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.9, "rotation_up": 20.53, "upward_expansion": 11.02, "deceleration": 42.59, "rotation_down": 57.2, "downward_expansion": 84.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.298, 0.303636, 0.323976, 0.339538 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.29, "trend_reference": 0.363167, "distance_from_trend": -0.201469, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.338013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.142044, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.879998, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.171429, "excess_performance": -0.235134, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.201469, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005477, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.142044, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087809, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1888, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.363954, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.171429, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.181653, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 767633, "relative_activity": 1.526894, "balance": 1.181653, "dry_up": 0.772144, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116711, "annualized_volatility": 0.637881, "from_high_reference": -0.425743, "from_low_reference": 0.208333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.363167, "fair_value_reference": 0.338013, "structural_low": 0.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.061776, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.069579, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 1.15625, "worst_return": -0.519608, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.159154, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.121564, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.15625, "worst_return": -0.578231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.10131, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.156303, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.521739, "worst_return": -0.664865, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"volume": 388151, "typical_volume": 535364.75, "trend": 0.368833, "fair_value": 0.347372, "relative_strength": -6.588245, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.472317, "energy": 50.054941, "activity_lines": [ 0.308667, 0.315636, 0.334048, 0.349613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.29, "volume": 196928, "typical_volume": 508628.15, "trend": 0.367333, "fair_value": 0.342821, "relative_strength": -16.190091, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.970469, "energy": 56.840276, "activity_lines": [ 0.303333, 0.308909, 0.32869, 0.344527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.29, "volume": 767633, "typical_volume": 502741.4, "trend": 0.363167, "fair_value": 0.338013, "relative_strength": -18.879998, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.694658, "energy": 56.930704, "activity_lines": [ 0.298, 0.303636, 0.323976, 0.339538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }