{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f1a2f7b7-11ae-4efd-b974-09638ebeb361", "symbol": "AW1R", "name": "UBS MSCI ACWI Socially Responsible UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.338, "architecture_energy": 49.028, "architecture_maturity": 64.381, "architecture_confidence": 78.34, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.19, "rotation_up": 44.59, "upward_expansion": 69.67, "deceleration": 85.46, "rotation_down": 27.71, "downward_expansion": 19.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.291333, 22.310182, 21.970662, 21.437737 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.764999, "trend_reference": 20.841967, "distance_from_trend": 0.092267, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.397686, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.308507, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.138061, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.146967, "excess_performance": 0.082327, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092267, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050645, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.308507, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02468, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.051381, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06813, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.146967, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.29641, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20369, "relative_activity": 1.091262, "balance": 1.29641, "dry_up": 0.749817, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022791, "annualized_volatility": 0.147921, "from_high_reference": -0.001097, "from_low_reference": 0.275493 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.841967, "fair_value_reference": 17.397686, "structural_low": 18.296, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.016573, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.008114, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.09699, "worst_return": -0.051211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.059906, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.011135, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.125408, "worst_return": -0.115866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.124556, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.050594, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.141587, "worst_return": -0.001854, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003153, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148455, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038784, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.049585, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010607, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 22.094999, "volume": 23170, "typical_volume": 23056.2, "trend": 20.5832, "fair_value": 17.2365, "relative_strength": 9.06852, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.676721, "energy": 66.64137, "activity_lines": [ 22.393, 22.259818, 21.636076, 21.134744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.01, "volume": 4917, "typical_volume": 21859.9, "trend": 20.667467, "fair_value": 17.287051, "relative_strength": 7.162149, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.783165, "energy": 59.740951, "activity_lines": [ 22.257333, 22.246909, 21.738833, 21.226796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.92, "volume": 7527, "typical_volume": 21299.65, "trend": 20.747933, "fair_value": 17.338885, "relative_strength": 4.259752, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.177142, "energy": 44.337978, "activity_lines": [ 22.124333, 22.204727, 21.821305, 21.307604 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.764999, "volume": 20369, "typical_volume": 18665.55, "trend": 20.841967, "fair_value": 17.397686, "relative_strength": 5.138061, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.337535, "energy": 49.028113, "activity_lines": [ 22.291333, 22.310182, 21.970662, 21.437737 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }