{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f1a4c26d-e508-4f6d-bce0-6eb5fe58a731", "symbol": "IHAK", "name": "ISHARES TRUST CYBERSECURITY AND TECH ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.502, "architecture_energy": 65.222, "architecture_maturity": 52.358, "architecture_confidence": 90.794, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 63.04, "upward_expansion": 83.98, "deceleration": 63.59, "rotation_down": 22.39, "downward_expansion": 10.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.618667, 61.297246, 58.031048, 54.877144 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 65.58, "trend_reference": 51.38269, "distance_from_trend": 0.276305, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.082766, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.363898, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.63592, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.468286, "excess_performance": 0.342661, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.276305, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073678, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.363898, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.243946, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.146359, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.21462, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.468286, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.39726, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1200965, "relative_activity": 1.438056, "balance": 2.39726, "dry_up": 1.254547, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060486, "annualized_volatility": 0.32534, "from_high_reference": -0.010263, "from_low_reference": 0.600887 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.38269, "fair_value_reference": 48.082766, "structural_low": 40.964788, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.000427, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.482759, "median_excess_return": -0.011796, "regime_survival": 0.724138, "best_return": 0.088513, "worst_return": -0.113452, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.003198, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.02999, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.188105, "worst_return": -0.152447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.000684, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.03335, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.159071, "worst_return": -0.060187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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81.053082, "energy": 71.017166, "activity_lines": [ 59.817526, 58.157643, 54.097655, 51.731619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 63.68, "volume": 1278465, "typical_volume": 873550.15, "trend": 50.046571, "fair_value": 47.62377, "relative_strength": 15.890963, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.624291, "energy": 88.543155, "activity_lines": [ 61.564, 59.426772, 55.328627, 52.642585 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.85, "volume": 911452, "typical_volume": 849656.6, "trend": 50.404613, "fair_value": 47.758656, "relative_strength": 9.633714, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.6517, "energy": 80.233154, "activity_lines": [ 61.516667, 59.784144, 56.098572, 53.275064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.5, "volume": 799964, "typical_volume": 826426.2, "trend": 50.843147, "fair_value": 47.904891, "relative_strength": 9.647997, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.277304, "energy": 62.549516, "activity_lines": [ 61.33, 60.119578, 56.860871, 53.92638 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.58, "volume": 1200965, "typical_volume": 835131.15, "trend": 51.38269, "fair_value": 48.082766, "relative_strength": 14.63592, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.502069, "energy": 65.222221, "activity_lines": [ 62.618667, 61.297246, 58.031048, 54.877144 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }