{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f1aa1326-95a7-4a2e-bcea-d1088d035cbe", "symbol": "TK", "name": "Teekay Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 57.63, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.842, "architecture_energy": 10.711, "architecture_maturity": 14.197, "architecture_confidence": 66.651, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.47, "rotation_up": 33.52, "upward_expansion": 52.89, "deceleration": 67.81, "rotation_down": 20.1, "downward_expansion": 21.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.271333, 11.174, 11.462872, 11.433175 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.32, "trend_reference": 11.17117, "distance_from_trend": 0.013323, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.857158, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.65083, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.082746, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.167215, "excess_performance": 0.04159, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013323, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079856, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.65083, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.450914, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.020827, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.299825, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.167215, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.882611, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2560659, "relative_activity": 0.959253, "balance": 0.882611, "dry_up": 1.008032, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089191, "annualized_volatility": 0.401721, "from_high_reference": -0.148534, "from_low_reference": 0.668131 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.17117, "fair_value_reference": 6.857158, "structural_low": 9.587358, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.044025, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": 0.030681, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.575669, "worst_return": -0.16265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.037437, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.002251, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.295681, "worst_return": -0.096875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.1462, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.133082, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.433444, "worst_return": -0.065714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.222255, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137064, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040179, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.845581, "volume": 2314902, "typical_volume": 3283594.0, "trend": 3.382782, "fair_value": 2.154548, "relative_strength": 22.103995, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.735994, 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"volume": 2451516, "typical_volume": 2745524.6, "trend": 10.882428, "fair_value": 6.70948, "relative_strength": 1.533313, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.214629, "energy": 30.444166, "activity_lines": [ 10.766667, 11.157976, 11.504885, 11.354121 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.2, "volume": 3201333, "typical_volume": 2726918.9, "trend": 10.972855, "fair_value": 6.757793, "relative_strength": 6.906451, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.289708, "energy": 32.213847, "activity_lines": [ 10.86, 11.11224, 11.474869, 11.374609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.65, "volume": 2549973, "typical_volume": 2704291.7, "trend": 11.089377, "fair_value": 6.808661, "relative_strength": 9.29559, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.727584, "energy": 10.425521, "activity_lines": [ 11.150667, 11.166909, 11.488131, 11.418296 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.32, "volume": 2560659, "typical_volume": 2669429.65, "trend": 11.17117, "fair_value": 6.857158, "relative_strength": 2.082746, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.842188, "energy": 10.710773, "activity_lines": [ 11.271333, 11.174, 11.462872, 11.433175 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }