{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f1adbd94-3213-4469-9a68-3f3dc3cf5d75", "symbol": "EMSR", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy MSCI Emerging SRI PAB UCITS ETF Capitalisation", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.852, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.503, "architecture_energy": 23.459, "architecture_maturity": 63.506, "architecture_confidence": 90.831, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.92, "rotation_up": 27.79, "upward_expansion": 56.93, "deceleration": 88.18, "rotation_down": 30.35, "downward_expansion": 18.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 194.804001, 196.142909, 195.113095, 191.460323 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 198.610001, "trend_reference": 187.465334, "distance_from_trend": 0.059449, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 152.396957, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.303241, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.473481, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.096566, "excess_performance": 0.043254, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059449, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048874, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.303241, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042965, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.034735, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120127, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096566, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.637283, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1958, "relative_activity": 1.605971, "balance": 2.637283, "dry_up": 1.978757, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039432, "annualized_volatility": 0.252764, "from_high_reference": -0.039418, "from_low_reference": 0.228338 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 187.465334, "fair_value_reference": 152.396957, "structural_low": 164.419998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.006765, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.006798, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.110232, "worst_return": -0.06979, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.010201, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.025205, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.229982, "worst_return": -0.060306, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.010119, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.017107, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.179017, "worst_return": -0.028829, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020046, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.034743, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045717, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.131416, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023691, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": 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150.941637, "relative_strength": 9.741021, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.019958, "energy": 52.118837, "activity_lines": [ 200.045332, 198.784363, 193.140381, 189.437807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 190.470001, "volume": 1308, "typical_volume": 1104.6, "trend": 185.375, "fair_value": 151.290932, "relative_strength": 4.261214, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.997303, "energy": 29.850178, "activity_lines": [ 196.717999, 197.466363, 193.419762, 189.81157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 192.300003, "volume": 639, "typical_volume": 937.45, "trend": 186.038, "fair_value": 151.621508, "relative_strength": 4.600812, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.899795, "energy": 21.483667, "activity_lines": [ 194.540668, 196.621091, 193.865619, 190.258344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 192.779999, "volume": 5745, "typical_volume": 1163.35, "trend": 186.721333, "fair_value": 151.976701, "relative_strength": 3.0187, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.462864, "energy": 20.428658, "activity_lines": [ 193.487334, 195.863273, 194.265953, 190.693312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 198.610001, "volume": 1958, "typical_volume": 1219.2, "trend": 187.465334, "fair_value": 152.396957, "relative_strength": 3.473481, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.503402, "energy": 23.459066, "activity_lines": [ 194.804001, 196.142909, 195.113095, 191.460323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }