{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f1b2a137-71a2-428b-8ca3-81559555bbf3", "symbol": "THU", "name": "TD U.S. Equity CAD Hedged Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.074, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.505, "architecture_energy": 60.018, "architecture_maturity": 58.171, "architecture_confidence": 76.05, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.41, "rotation_up": 55.62, "upward_expansion": 82.56, "deceleration": 64.81, "rotation_down": 27.43, "downward_expansion": 9.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.811334, 48.556577, 48.1139, 47.205535 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 49.900002, "trend_reference": 46.20166, "distance_from_trend": 0.080048, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.489625, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.296453, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.701443, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.112816, "excess_performance": -0.007605, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080048, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029689, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.296453, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001513, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017014, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -9.6e-05, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.112816, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.585366, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13500, "relative_activity": 1.125469, "balance": 3.585366, "dry_up": 0.750313, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019034, "annualized_volatility": 0.137315, "from_high_reference": -0.00657, "from_low_reference": 0.21737 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.20166, "fair_value_reference": 38.489625, "structural_low": 40.990002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.018069, "positive_rate": 0.710526, "directional_follow_through": 0.710526, "median_excess_return": -0.000334, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.061244, "worst_return": -0.050437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.041524, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.017154, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.134478, "worst_return": -0.062713, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.082163, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.00956, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.161909, "worst_return": -0.177606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"volume": 6900, "typical_volume": 14620.0, "trend": 45.695215, "fair_value": 37.995763, "relative_strength": -1.448074, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.42573, "energy": 63.475985, "activity_lines": [ 48.406338, 48.299642, 47.292709, 46.500718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.18, "volume": 7500, "typical_volume": 13815.0, "trend": 45.82075, "fair_value": 38.115745, "relative_strength": -2.658039, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.790662, "energy": 54.449473, "activity_lines": [ 48.369865, 48.295073, 47.487364, 46.661027 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.939999, "volume": 8800, "typical_volume": 13090.0, "trend": 45.921389, "fair_value": 38.232391, "relative_strength": -3.217455, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.070498, "energy": 51.013607, "activity_lines": [ 48.241333, 48.238135, 47.641791, 46.797753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.389999, "volume": 6200, "typical_volume": 12145.0, "trend": 46.047996, "fair_value": 38.355269, "relative_strength": -1.727905, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.223217, "energy": 48.842865, "activity_lines": [ 48.301999, 48.260824, 47.818855, 46.957018 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.900002, "volume": 13500, "typical_volume": 11995.0, "trend": 46.20166, "fair_value": 38.489625, "relative_strength": -1.701443, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.504809, "energy": 60.017601, "activity_lines": [ 48.811334, 48.556577, 48.1139, 47.205535 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }