{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f1b989dc-4bf9-401b-ba70-22b9d420f8bf", "symbol": "300017", "name": "Wangsu Science & Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 66.728, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.14, "architecture_energy": 25.631, "architecture_maturity": 21.845, "architecture_confidence": 41.324, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.64, "rotation_up": 22.67, "upward_expansion": 14.29, "deceleration": 63.12, "rotation_down": 39.14, "downward_expansion": 64.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.269333, 14.022856, 14.783275, 15.477655 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.46, "trend_reference": 15.86904, "distance_from_trend": -0.025776, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.479421, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.475272, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.958778, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.066425, "excess_performance": -0.073825, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025776, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080496, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.475272, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.30549, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.089588, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036675, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.066425, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.186171, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1104038734, "relative_activity": 1.36885, "balance": 1.186171, "dry_up": 1.171351, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13554, "annualized_volatility": 0.703687, "from_high_reference": -0.358506, "from_low_reference": 0.600414 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.86904, "fair_value_reference": 10.479421, "structural_low": 11.93, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.057591, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.023873, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.61561, "worst_return": -0.013717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.113497, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.052403, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.703371, "worst_return": 0.047348, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.403968, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.303575, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.479024, "worst_return": -0.026591, "sufficient": true 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.23, "volume": 942989184, "typical_volume": 915682019.55, "trend": 15.467373, "fair_value": 10.330196, "relative_strength": -2.501734, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.207077, "energy": 44.287567, "activity_lines": [ 13.694667, 14.115194, 15.272435, 15.751254 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.0, "volume": 977027558, "typical_volume": 891104007.95, "trend": 15.568039, "fair_value": 10.372135, "relative_strength": -4.588457, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.026548, "energy": 35.699821, "activity_lines": [ 13.442667, 13.786745, 14.977286, 15.592069 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.03, "volume": 754933454, "typical_volume": 812717067.6, "trend": 15.695373, "fair_value": 10.420434, "relative_strength": 4.355717, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.154474, "energy": 34.762921, "activity_lines": [ 13.659333, 13.748446, 14.803328, 15.49284 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.46, "volume": 1104038734, "typical_volume": 806544741.8, "trend": 15.86904, "fair_value": 10.479421, "relative_strength": 8.958778, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.139512, "energy": 25.631143, "activity_lines": [ 14.269333, 14.022856, 14.783275, 15.477655 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }