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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.626, "architecture_energy": 82.969, "architecture_maturity": 21.55, "architecture_confidence": 72.682, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.2, "rotation_up": 82.81, "upward_expansion": 96.66, "deceleration": 39.13, "rotation_down": 8.96, "downward_expansion": 18.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 502.770673, 484.899277, 469.442479, 457.657874 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 516.52002, "trend_reference": 441.706336, "distance_from_trend": 0.169374, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 418.094038, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.235416, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.653337, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.421667, "excess_performance": 0.250775, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.169374, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048586, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.235416, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100417, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.026533, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035565, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.421667, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.193831, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 114, "relative_activity": 0.307236, "balance": 1.193831, "dry_up": 1.551004, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05297, "annualized_volatility": 0.304668, "from_high_reference": -0.013126, "from_low_reference": 0.589292 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 441.706336, "fair_value_reference": 418.094038, "structural_low": 369.600006, 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[ 443.990004, 444.228729, 444.571859, 437.953572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 495.309998, "volume": 1141, "typical_volume": 724.75, "trend": 436.203669, "fair_value": 411.813269, "relative_strength": 0.612519, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.190294, "energy": 52.955066, "activity_lines": [ 461.588003, 452.859274, 449.95443, 441.952346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 491.910004, "volume": 696, "typical_volume": 710.2, "trend": 437.922669, "fair_value": 413.359422, "relative_strength": 1.133868, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.359962, "energy": 68.82349, "activity_lines": [ 473.924003, 460.419092, 454.594573, 445.546303 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 479.649994, "volume": 638, "typical_volume": 606.1, "trend": 439.306335, "fair_value": 414.762499, "relative_strength": -1.207278, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.02945, "energy": 70.532755, "activity_lines": [ 479.481334, 465.096546, 457.750477, 448.238389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 510.220001, "volume": 854, "typical_volume": 453.1, "trend": 441.431669, "fair_value": 416.346538, "relative_strength": 4.385282, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.051314, "energy": 81.652174, "activity_lines": [ 492.61, 474.83091, 463.55681, 452.813464 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 516.52002, "volume": 114, "typical_volume": 371.05, "trend": 441.706336, "fair_value": 418.094038, "relative_strength": 2.653337, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.62637, "energy": 82.968747, "activity_lines": [ 502.770673, 484.899277, 469.442479, 457.657874 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }