{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f1cd6bab-1568-4f6a-b04c-dd53cbd2ba2b", "symbol": "9VW", "name": "$ Spackman Entmt", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -47.412, "architecture_energy": 50.959, "architecture_maturity": 39.552, "architecture_confidence": 72.303, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.12, "rotation_up": 19.87, "upward_expansion": 17.23, "deceleration": 46.19, "rotation_down": 65.7, "downward_expansion": 58.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.106933, 0.109927, 0.116676, 0.117019 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.1, "trend_reference": 0.112867, "distance_from_trend": -0.113999, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.167, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.401198, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.619943, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.149425, "excess_performance": -0.00541, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.113999, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015698, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.401198, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168365, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.336199, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.270295, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.149425, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.166792, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2500, "relative_activity": 0.077543, "balance": 0.166792, "dry_up": 0.702543, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11, "annualized_volatility": 0.728249, "from_high_reference": -0.534884, "from_low_reference": 1.173913 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.112867, "fair_value_reference": 0.167, "structural_low": 0.078, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.003106, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.043625, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.497041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.227811, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.284809, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.049689, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.514286, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.604272, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.428571, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.4, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.381643, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.4, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.16, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02439, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071038, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.10559, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011628, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011628, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09375, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137931, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.3, "volume": 76141, "typical_volume": 12493.75, "trend": 0.286667, "fair_value": 0.460897, "relative_strength": -10.358518, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.425795, "energy": 6.370346, "activity_lines": [ 0.286667, 0.283636, 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"relative_strength": -22.939867, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.412711, "energy": 16.426168, "activity_lines": [ 0.114933, 0.116455, 0.122629, 0.117944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.11, "volume": 27200, "typical_volume": 61035.0, "trend": 0.110367, "fair_value": 0.170083, "relative_strength": -28.734699, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.389186, "energy": 14.930589, "activity_lines": [ 0.113133, 0.114691, 0.121538, 0.117974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.112, "volume": 15100, "typical_volume": 61790.0, "trend": 0.111233, "fair_value": 0.169519, "relative_strength": -27.23749, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.242561, "energy": 15.209076, "activity_lines": [ 0.112533, 0.113818, 0.120552, 0.11808 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.107, "volume": 45800, "typical_volume": 61680.0, "trend": 0.1122, "fair_value": 0.168282, "relative_strength": -29.548574, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.564953, "energy": 20.426319, "activity_lines": [ 0.110467, 0.112436, 0.118995, 0.117806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 32240.0, "trend": 0.112867, "fair_value": 0.167, "relative_strength": -33.619943, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.412099, "energy": 50.95912, "activity_lines": [ 0.106933, 0.109927, 0.116676, 0.117019 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }