{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f1d42de7-2e3f-47ed-b2d4-f26adeb037a6", "symbol": "WAFD", "name": "WaFd, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.609, "architecture_energy": 30.121, "architecture_maturity": 79.329, "architecture_confidence": 78.956, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.45, "rotation_up": 36.68, "upward_expansion": 65.89, "deceleration": 84.96, "rotation_down": 26.48, "downward_expansion": 15.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.160667, 37.353818, 36.600336, 35.570825 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.16, "trend_reference": 34.315509, "distance_from_trend": 0.082892, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.664304, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.252684, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.251817, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.119911, "excess_performance": -0.067543, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082892, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05874, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.252684, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024821, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.002518, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038635, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.119911, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.047637, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2946488, "relative_activity": 0.989577, "balance": 2.047637, "dry_up": 1.042269, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048547, "annualized_volatility": 0.195412, "from_high_reference": -0.0589, "from_low_reference": 0.447109 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.315509, "fair_value_reference": 29.664304, "structural_low": 29.384861, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.028253, "positive_rate": 0.32, "directional_follow_through": 0.32, "median_excess_return": -0.057358, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.117351, "worst_return": -0.156524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.027549, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.064824, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.156211, "worst_return": -0.235163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.084859, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.158265, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.068017, "worst_return": -0.262725, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 3101523.3, "trend": 33.67075, "fair_value": 29.416619, "relative_strength": 2.301554, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.382218, "energy": 68.921896, "activity_lines": [ 37.849333, 37.02996, 35.699864, 34.724653 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.12, "volume": 3559510, "typical_volume": 3131204.3, "trend": 33.847844, "fair_value": 29.489806, "relative_strength": 6.663171, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.677755, "energy": 68.894457, "activity_lines": [ 38.026667, 37.349074, 36.060087, 35.011702 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.73, "volume": 3179572, "typical_volume": 3150096.6, "trend": 33.987136, "fair_value": 29.544076, "relative_strength": 4.336627, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.209186, "energy": 49.555421, "activity_lines": [ 37.670667, 37.363818, 36.253658, 35.197647 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.77, "volume": 2727950, "typical_volume": 3111639.35, "trend": 34.158603, "fair_value": 29.600394, "relative_strength": 3.77018, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.339752, "energy": 37.291088, "activity_lines": [ 37.311333, 37.337273, 36.42263, 35.377187 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.16, "volume": 2946488, "typical_volume": 2977522.3, "trend": 34.315509, "fair_value": 29.664304, "relative_strength": -0.251817, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.609243, "energy": 30.120667, "activity_lines": [ 37.160667, 37.353818, 36.600336, 35.570825 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }