{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f1d9a33c-9331-4792-bddd-8142d3c5946d", "symbol": "8280", "name": "Liva Insurance Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.948, "architecture_energy": 61.705, "architecture_maturity": 43.708, "architecture_confidence": 77.007, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.06, "rotation_up": 75.25, "upward_expansion": 85.38, "deceleration": 62.74, "rotation_down": 11.7, "downward_expansion": 9.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.576667, 14.010545, 12.764571, 12.080237 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 14.8, "trend_reference": 11.423667, "distance_from_trend": 0.295556, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.32891, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.034504, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 27.488324, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.333333, "excess_performance": 0.365163, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.295556, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054947, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.034504, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.287488, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.274883, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.374647, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.333333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.445191, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5157257, "relative_activity": 3.296426, "balance": 4.445191, "dry_up": 3.001076, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094751, "annualized_volatility": 0.437905, "from_high_reference": -0.097561, "from_low_reference": 0.579509 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.423667, "fair_value_reference": 15.32891, "structural_low": 9.37, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.005156, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.020552, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.165306, "worst_return": -0.176883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.00576, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.073469, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.122162, "worst_return": -0.198171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.015135, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.022386, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.074968, "worst_return": -0.281707, "sufficient": false }, { 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061878, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.185874, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014815, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.085122, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060995, "active": false }, { "regime": 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63.162041, "energy": 78.199038, "activity_lines": [ 11.947333, 11.366545, 10.884857, 10.784516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 13.96, "volume": 2758625, "typical_volume": 609447.85, "trend": 10.849, "fair_value": 15.422564, "relative_strength": 22.238035, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.880164, "energy": 93.861938, "activity_lines": [ 12.738667, 11.906545, 11.20681, 10.990086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.29, "volume": 1249207, "typical_volume": 658150.9, "trend": 10.909667, "fair_value": 15.401859, "relative_strength": 16.396777, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.443048, "energy": 88.514154, "activity_lines": [ 13.072, 12.259273, 11.449429, 11.14757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.88, "volume": 5762336, "typical_volume": 935022.55, "trend": 11.039, "fair_value": 15.383397, "relative_strength": 30.829647, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.741734, "energy": 89.868427, "activity_lines": [ 13.762667, 12.844364, 11.828857, 11.40372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.2, "volume": 5753647, "typical_volume": 1214758.55, "trend": 11.190333, "fair_value": 15.36968, "relative_strength": 32.219057, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.363509, "energy": 87.241822, "activity_lines": [ 14.347333, 13.409818, 12.215333, 11.672172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.0, "volume": 2107486, "typical_volume": 1308966.75, "trend": 11.284667, "fair_value": 15.347372, "relative_strength": 23.905238, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.795796, "energy": 60.65958, "activity_lines": [ 14.398667, 13.669818, 12.462571, 11.853441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.8, "volume": 5157257, "typical_volume": 1564499.55, "trend": 11.423667, "fair_value": 15.32891, "relative_strength": 27.488324, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.948169, "energy": 61.704748, "activity_lines": [ 14.576667, 14.010545, 12.764571, 12.080237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }