{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f1efa971-3ba1-4daf-b366-ce43625e94be", "symbol": "600106", "name": "Chongqing road & bridge co.,ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.682, "architecture_energy": 65.109, "architecture_maturity": 63.793, "architecture_confidence": 89.267, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 18.19, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 52.81, "rotation_down": 65.94, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.348667, 4.47658, 4.906173, 5.194302 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.48, "trend_reference": 5.579248, "distance_from_trend": -0.197024, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.677869, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.210972, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.058938, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.295597, "excess_performance": -0.252394, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.197024, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095404, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.210972, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.291603, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.250589, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134516, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.295597, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.530668, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71070286, "relative_activity": 1.022315, "balance": 0.530668, "dry_up": 1.033999, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08186, "annualized_volatility": 0.335512, "from_high_reference": -0.45565, "from_low_reference": 0.12 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.579248, "fair_value_reference": 5.677869, "structural_low": 4.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.00108, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004938, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.420779, "worst_return": -0.233792, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.062257, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.051452, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.282105, "worst_return": -0.167329, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.237355, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.106561, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.844358, "worst_return": 0.066334, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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4.549776, 4.791168, 5.220374, 5.468759 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.02, "volume": 73413422, "typical_volume": 67857199.85, "trend": 5.705248, "fair_value": 5.683265, "relative_strength": -31.708186, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.584004, "energy": 92.590335, "activity_lines": [ 4.339324, 4.606487, 5.08072, 5.355195 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.37, "volume": 70197308, "typical_volume": 69096790.5, "trend": 5.638581, "fair_value": 5.680025, "relative_strength": -25.564604, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.489008, "energy": 74.469825, "activity_lines": [ 4.31822, 4.519806, 4.984399, 5.26905 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.48, "volume": 71070286, "typical_volume": 69518983.05, "trend": 5.579248, "fair_value": 5.677869, "relative_strength": -25.058938, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.682139, "energy": 65.108762, "activity_lines": [ 4.348667, 4.47658, 4.906173, 5.194302 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }